Despite some financial turbulence, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilientduring the first half of 2018. The growth outlook for the region remains positive. After peaking in2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to slow modestly in 2018, as China's economicexpansion continues to moderate. However, downside risks have significantly intensified. Anescalation in trade tensions and heightened financial market turbulence, either due to an accelerationin U.S. monetary policy normalization or contagion from other emerging markets could threaten theregion's growth prospects. To navigate uncertainty, developing EAP economies should reduceshort-term vulnerabilities and enhance buffers, redouble their commitment to an open, rules-basedinternational trade and investment framework, including through deeper regional economicintegration, and deepen structural reforms. The intensification of risks underscores the need tocontinue to enhance economic security by investing in human capital and strengthen socialassistance and insurance programs to increase households' resilience to systemic shocks.

The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submits the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.

As in previous years, global growth disappointed in 2014, but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies and developing countries. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in highincome countries, low oil prices, and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies. However, continued weak global trade growth and gradually tightening financial conditions will constrain the recovery. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes four essays that analyze key challenges and opportunities currently confronting developing countries: fiscal policy as a countercyclical policy tool; causes and implications of cheap oil; weak trade that fails to act as an engine of growth; and remittances as a means of steadying consumption during sudden stops. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.

In 2012, the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region continued its successful drive to reduce poverty and build the middle class. Poverty reduction was accompanied by strong income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population, the World Bank's indicator of shared prosperity. However, the recent economic slowdown and stagnation in inequality decline suggest that future social gains may be more difficult to achieve. Given the modest prospects ahead, the region's poverty reduction strategy needs to focus on restoring growth and preserving macroeconomic stability, while reinforcing the ability of less advantaged groups to participate in and contribute to growth. This report assesses two relevant policy areas: equity of fiscal policy and equal access to basic goods and services for children that open the opportunity for them to lead lives of their choosing. Drawing on results from the Commitment to Equity project, the report shows that fiscal policy remains an underused instrument in terms of level and incidence of taxation and spending. The Human Opportunity Index underscores that opportunities are expanding for children in the region, but large gaps remain in access and quality.

This pocket-sized reference on key development data for more than 200 countries provides profiles of each country with 54 development indicators about people, environment, economy, technology and infrastructure, trade, and finance.
(source: Nielsen Book Data)

This pocket-sized reference on key development data for more than 200 countries provides profiles of each country with 54 development indicators about the financial sector access and services for lower income people.
(source: Nielsen Book Data)

World Development Indicators 2015 provides a compilation of relevant, highquality, and internationally comparable statistics about global development and the fight against poverty. It is intended to help policymakers, students, analysts, professors, program managers, and citizens find and use data related to all aspects of development, including those that help monitor progress toward the World Bank Group’s two goals of ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity. Six themes are used to organize indicators—world view, people, environment, economy, states and markets, and global links. As in past editions, World Development Indicators reviews global progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and provides key indicators related to poverty. WDI 2015 includes: * A selection of the most popular indicators across 214 economies and 14 country groups organized into six WDI themes * Thematic and regional highlights, providing an overview of global development trends * An in-depth review of the progress made toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals * A user guide describing resources available online and on mobile apps A complementary online data analysis tool is available this year to allow readers to further investigate global, regional, and country progress on the MDGs: data.worldbank.org/mdgs. Each of the remaining sections includes an introduction; six stories highlighting specific global, regional or country trends; and a table of the most relevant and popular indicators for that theme, together with a discussion of indicator compilation methodology. WDI DataFinder Mobile App Download the WDI DataFinder Mobile App and other Data Apps at data.worldbank.org/apps. WDI DataFinder is a mobile app for browsing the current WDI database on smartphones and tablets, using iOS, Android, and Blackberry, available in four languages: English, French, Spanish, and Chinese. Use the app to: * browse data using the structure of the WDI * visually compare countries and indicators * create, edit, and save customized tables, charts, and maps * share what you create on Twitter, Facebook, and via email

Developing countries in the East Asia Pacific region will see stable economic growth this year, bolstered by a recovery in high-income economies and the market’s modest response so far to the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its quantitative easing, according to the East Asia Pacific Economic Update. Developing East Asia will grow by 7.1 percent this year, largely unchanged from 2013, the report says. As a result, East Asia remains the fastest growing region in the world, despite a slowdown from the average growth rate of 8.0 percent from 2009 to 2013. In China, growth will ease slightly, to 7.6 percent this year from 7.7 percent in 2013. Excluding China, the developing countries in the region will grow by 5.0 percent, slightly down from 5.2 percent last year.

In China, growth will gradually moderate, reflecting intensified policy efforts to address financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints, and place the economy on a more sustainable growth path. In the rest of the region, growth will pick up, as exports firm in line with strengthening global activity, and the impact of domestic adjustment in large ASEAN countries eases. Significant uncertainties remain about the sustainability of the global recovery, and global financial conditions are likely to tighten. The short-term priority in several countries is to address the vulnerabilities and inefficiencies created by an extended period of loose financial conditions and fiscal stimulus. In China, the authorities need to strike a balance between containing growing risks from rising leverage and meeting the indicative growth targets. Over the longer term, the focus in most countries must be on structural reforms to enhance export competitiveness. The report’s special section focuses on education & skills development; international migration; and the policy priorities for the Pacific Island Countries.

High-income economies appear to be finally turning the corner, contributing to a projected acceleration in global growth from 2.4 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent this year, 3.4 percent in 2015, and 3.5 percent in 2016. Overall, growth in developing countries is projected to pick up modestly from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent this year, 5.5 percent in 2015, and 5.7 percent in 2016. In the baseline, the withdrawal of quantitative easing (and its effect on the long end of U.S. interest rates) is assumed to follow a relatively slow orderly trajectory. If, however, the taper is met with an abrupt market adjustment, capital inflows could weaken sharply—placing renewed stress on vulnerable developing economies. In a scenario where long-term interest rates rise rapidly by 100 basis points, capital inflows could decline by as much as 50 percent for several quarters.

The global economy got off to a bumpy start this year, but growth in 2015 and 2016 looks to be broadly on track. Projections for developing countries in 2014 have been down downgraded by 0.5 percentage points to 4.8 percent mainly reflecting weak first quarter growth in the US due to weather and the conflict in Ukraine. Going forward growth is projected to firm to 5.3 and 5.5 percent in 2015 and 2016 supported by easy global financial conditions and rebounding exports as high-income countries continue to recover under the influence of a reduced drag from fiscal consolidation and improving labor markets. Financial conditions will eventually tighten, and when they do there is risk of further volatility. Most developing countries are in good fiscal and financial shape, but where vulnerabilities remain countries need to tighten policy to reduce the potential impact of external shocks. Overall, growth for developing countries will be solid but not strong enough to generate the income and employment gains needed to eliminate poverty by 2013. As a result, countries need to focus on structural reform in order to lift growth in and enduring and sustainable manner.

International Debt Statistics (IDS) 2014 (formerly Global Development Finance ) provides statistical tables showing the external debt of 128 developing countries that report public and publicly guaranteed external debt to the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS). It also includes tables of key debt ratios for individual reporting countries and the composition of external debt stocks and flows for individual reporting countries and regional and income groups along with some graphical presentations. IDS 2014 draws on a database maintained by the World Bank External Debt (WBXD) system. Longer time series and more detailed data are available from the World Bank open databases, which contain more than 200 time series indicators, covering the years 1970 to 2012 for most reporting countries, and pipeline data for scheduled debt service payments on existing commitments to 2019. International Debt Statistics 2014 is unique in its coverage of the important trends and issues fundamental to the financing of the developing world. This report is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community. In addition, International Debt Statistics will showcase the broader spectrum of debt data collected and compiled by the World Bank. These include the high frequency, quarterly external debt database (QEDS) and the quarterly public sector database (QPSD) developed in partnership with the International Monetary Fund and launched by the World Bank.
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The Little Green Data Book is a pocket-sized ready reference on key environmental data for over 200 countries. Key indicators are organised under the headings of agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, oceans, energy, emission and pollution, and water and sanitation. For the second year, The Little Green Data Book presents a new set of ocean-related indicators, highlighting the role of oceans in economic development.
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Global recovery remains below expectations and uneven across major advanced economies. Monetary tightening in a recovering US economy and potential deflation in a weak Eurozone constitute sources of risk for developing and emerging market economies. Nonetheless, developing country growth remains fairly robust. Notably, India continues its path towards sustained and faster growth as well as macroeconomic stability thereby paving the way for a solid regional performance in South Asia. While the region’s external position has been further solidified, key domestic challenges include reducing risks on the fiscal side as well as sustaining investment and export growth through structural reform and prudent macroeconomic policy. The overall short and medium term outlook for South Asia points towards continued acceleration with potential downside risks concentrated on the fiscal and structural reform side. Future growth dynamics will increasingly depend on strong investment and export performance. While a challenging task, it may afford South Asia to significantly catch up with the fastest growing region - East Asia and Pacific. This edition’s special focus section takes a macroeconomic look at exports and their potential for becoming a permanent growth pillar in South Asia.

Gradual removal of stimulus policies continues as developed economies follow their expected path of slow but sustained recovery. After suffering from international portfolio rebalancing triggered by gradual removal of quantitative easing in the US announced in May 2013, India in particular and South Asia more broadly have managed to reduce external vulnerability. However, growth across the region continues to falter while formidable domestic challenges remain to be tackled. The overall short and medium term outlook for South Asia remains cautiously positive. External vulnerabilities are gradually giving way to domestic downside risks as primary concern for growth and macroeconomic stability. Hence, as previous regional economic updates have argued, any positive development in growth will depend on progress isolating domestic threats to and building buffers for macroeconomic stability, strengthening the investment climate, and removing infrastructure bottlenecks. Over the short and medium run, the economic fortunes of South Asian economies will depend in part on financial sector developments. In the short term the key question is how further monetary contraction in the US will affect them. Over the medium run it will be crucial to achieve more robust and efficient financial intermediation to ensure greater resilience to shocks and that resources are allocated to fund major remaining infrastructure gaps. This edition’s focus section attempts to answer the first question and sheds light on risks in the South Asian banking sector.

The report is a one stop shop for learning about key developments and prospects of existing and emerging carbon initiatives. A challenging international carbon market has not stopped the development of domestic carbon pricing initiatives. Today, about 40 national and over 20 sub-national jurisdictions responsible for almost one fourth of global greenhouse gas emissions are putting a price on carbon. Together, these initiatives cover the equivalent of almost 6 gigatons of carbon dioxide, or about 12% of global emissions.

Every policy relies on explicit or implicit assumptions about how people make choices. Those assumptions typically rest on an idealized model of how people think, rather than an understanding of how everyday thinking actually works. This year's World Development Report argues that a more realistic account of decision-making and behavior will make development policy more effective. The Report emphasizes what it calls 'the three marks of everyday thinking'. In everyday thinking, people use intuition much more than careful analysis. They employ concepts and tools that prior experience in their cultural world has made familiar. And social emotions and social norms motivate much of what they do. These insights together explain the extraordinary persistence of some social practices, and rapid change in others. They also offer new targets for development policy. A richer understanding of why people save, use preventive health care, work hard, learn, and conserve energy provides a basis for innovative and inexpensive interventions. The insights reveal that poverty not only deprives people of resources but is an environment that shapes decision making, a fact that development projects across the board need to recognize. The insights show that the psychological foundations of decision making emerge at a young age and require social support. The Report applies insights from modern behavioral and social sciences to development policies for addressing poverty, finance, productivity, health, children, and climate change. It demonstrates that new policy ideas based on a richer view of decision-making can yield high economic returns. These new policy targets include: the choice architecture (for example, the default option) the scope for social rewards frames that influence whether or not a norm is activated information in the form of rules of thumb opportunities for experiences that change mental models or social norms Finally, the Report shows that small changes in context have large effects on behavior. As a result, discovering which interventions are most effective, and with which contexts and populations, inherently requires an experimental approach. Rigor is needed for testing the processes for delivering interventions, not just the products that are delivered.
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Africa Development Indicators 2012/13 is the most detailed collection of data on Africa available. It contains macroeconomic, sectoral, and social indicators for 53 countries. The companion CD-ROM has additional data, with some 1,700 indicators covering 1961-2010. * National and fiscal accounts * External accounts and exchange rates * Millennium Development Goals * Private sector development * Trade and regional integration * Infrastructure * Agriculture, rural development, and the environment * Labour, migration, and population * HIV/AIDS and malaria * Governance and policy Designed as both a quick reference and a reliable dataset for monitoring development programs and aid flows in the region, Africa Development Indicators 2012/13 is an invaluable tool for analysts and policymakers who want a better understanding of Africa's economic and social development..
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Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business Dealing with construction permits Getting electricity Registering property Getting credit Protecting investors Paying taxes Trading across borders Enforcing contracts Closing a business Employing workers The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall "ease of doing business", and analyses reforms to business regulation - identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. Doing Business illustrates how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyse economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. It is a flagship product produced in partnership by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies have used the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception. This year's report includes two new economies: Barbados and Malta.
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This report evaluates the outcomes of World Bank Group support to Afghanistan from 2002-11. Despite extremely difficult security conditions, which deteriorated markedly after 2006, the World Bank Group has commendably established and sustained a large program of support to the country. The key messages of the evaluation are: • While World Bank Group strategy has been highly relevant to Afghanistan’s situation, beginning in 2006 the strategies could have gone further in adapting ongoing programs to evolving opportunities and needs, and in programming activities sufficient to achieve the objectives of the pillars in those strategies. • Overall, Bank Group assistance has achieved substantial progress toward most of its major objectives, although risks to development outcomes remain high. Impressive results have been achieved in public financial management, public health, telecommunications, and community development; substantial outputs have also been achieved in primary education, rural roads, irrigation, and microfinance-all started during the initial phase. Bank assistance has been critical in developing the mining sector as a potential engine of growth. However, progress has been limited in civil service reform, agriculture, urban development, and private sector development. • The Bank Group’s direct financial assistance has been augmented effectively by analytic and advisory activities and donor coordination through the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund. Knowledge services have been an important part of Bank Group support and have demonstrated the value of strategic analytical work, even in areas where the Bank Group may opt out of direct project financing. • With the expected reduction of the international presence in 2014, sustainability of development gains remains a major risk because of capacity constraints and inadequate human resources planning on the civilian side. To enhance program effectiveness, the evaluation recommends that the Bank Group help the government develop a comprehensive, long-term human resources strategy for the civilian sectors; focus on strategic analytical work in sectors that are high priorities for the government; assist in the development of local government institutions and, in the interim, support the development of a viable system for service delivery at subnational levels; assist in transforming the National Solidarity Program into a more sustainable financial and institutional model to consolidate its gains; help strengthen the regulatory environment for private sector investment; and scale up IFC and MIGA support to the private sector. Chapter Abstracts Chapter 1 This chapter examines the country context, including continuing conflict and insecurity, poverty, and the role of development partners and non-state actors (civil society and humanitarian organizations) in Afghanistan. It examines coming transitions in security arrangements, including political and economic transitions. It outlines the evaluation methods used, as well as limitations. Chapter 2 This chapter deals with the World Bank Group strategy and program, the Bank Group’s operational program, portfolio performance, analytic and advisory activities review, the Afghanistan Reconstruction Fund, and the new Interim Strategy Note, as well as previous Transitional Support Strategies and ISNs. Chapter 3 This chapter examines the building of state capacity and state accountability to its citizens, specifically issues such as results and shortcomings in public financial management, public sector governance, and health and education. The World Bank Group contribution is highlighted. Risks to development outcomes are discussed. Chapter 4 This chapter examines the issue of promoting growth in the rural economy and improving rural livelihoods, including sectors such as rural roads, agriculture and water. The National Solidarity Program and the Bank Group’s contribution to it are discussed. Risks to development outcomes are noted. Chapter 5 This chapter concerns support for the formal private sector, examining the overall investment climate and financial sector. It looks at possibilities for growth in the mining and hydrocarbons sector, information and communications technology, and power sectors. Urban development is also examined. The World Bank Group contribution is highlighted. Chapter 6 This chapter provides an overall assessment (relevance, efficacy) of the Bank Group’s program in Afghanistan, outlining the internal and external drivers of success (knowledge services, staff capacity, customization of program design to country context, alignment of donor objectives, etc) and weakness. Chapter 7 This chapter outlines the lessons for fragile and conflict-affected situations drawing on the specifics of the Afghanistan evaluation case. Recommendations are offered in areas such as labor markets, human resources, strategic-level analytical work vis-a-vis long-term development strategies, and strengthening of the regulatory environment for private sector investment.