articles+ search results

GENDER, WOMEN legislators, WOMEN'S rights, VIOLENCE against women, and ABORTION laws

As critical mass theorists have argued, the number of female legislators is important in the enactment of gender-status laws. Female legislators share strong beliefs on women's rights and have easily coordinated their legislative activities on gender issues. In addition, their strong coordination and consequent political influence have often allowed them to form a legislative majority by influencing male legislators. Gender policies, however, are frequently associated with non-gender policy dimensions on which female legislators tend to have different ideas. Thus, when a gender issue is interpreted in terms of a conspicuous non-gender policy dimension, critical mass theory may not work properly; the heterogeneity of female legislators regarding non-gender policy dimensions can weaken their legislative coordination, thereby hampering gender-status lawmaking. This article examines these propositions by reviewing the legislative histories of violence against women and the legality of abortion in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ACTRESSES, WOMEN'S suffrage, YOUNG women, CRITICAL theory, BABY boom generation, and ELECTIONS

Critical mass theories predict that women in government will sponsor and vote for more women and feminist bills as their numbers increase. Using Voteview.com data of roll-call votes measuring left–right ideology from 1977 to 2019 this paper shows that ideological divides among women in the U.S. House of Representatives have deepened rather than veered in a liberal direction. Republican women have moved rightward over time and more conservative ones are winning elections. Belonging to a politicized generation, older Silent Generation and Boomer women are more ideologically extreme than younger women. Parties are also elevating their more ideological female members. As their numbers increase, female House members are expected to remain ideologically diverse in a polarized legislative environment. Critical mass theories are deficient in failing to place female political actors in a dynamic workplace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PARTISANSHIP, ELECTIONS, POLARIZATION (Social sciences), INCUMBENCY (Public officers), and MOTIVATION (Psychology)

Objective: This article explores whether voters evaluate candidates' ideology, partisanship, and quality independently or exhibit behavior consistent with motivating reasoning, rating co‐partisans and candidates ideologically similar to themselves as more competent. Methods: Using a survey of voters and experts from 2010 U.S. House elections, I estimate a model predicting an individual's rating of incumbent candidate competence for office and challenger candidate competence for office. Results: Individuals ideologically distant from a candidate rate the candidate as less competent, yet rate co‐partisan candidates as more competent. For incumbents, opposing partisanship amplifies the negative effect of ideological distance on candidate quality ratings, and shared partisanship mitigates the negative effect of ideological distance. Conclusion: Only incumbents rated as the most competent can overcome the ideological and partisan biases of voters. Consistent with theories of affective polarization, these results imply that polarization runs deeper than partisan or ideological differences–it is personal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BUDGET reconciliation, RECONCILIATION, and CHICKENS

Since its early uses in the early 1980s, the budget reconciliation process has played an important role in how the U.S. Congress legislates. Because the procedures protect certain legislation from a filibuster in the Senate, the reconciliation rules both shape, and are shaped by, the upper chamber in significant ways. After providing a brief overview of the process, I discuss first how partisanship in the Senate has affected the use of the reconciliation procedures. Next, I describe two sets of consequences of the contemporary reconciliation process, on negotiation and on policy design. I conclude with some observations about the relationship of reconciliation to the prospects for broader procedural change in the Senate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

RUNOFF elections, ELECTIONS, PARTISANSHIP, DEMOCRATS (United States), VOTING, PRESIDENTIAL elections, and FEDERAL government

Recent work on American presidential elections suggests that voters engage in anticipatory balancing, which occurs when voters split their ticket in order to moderate collective policy outcomes by forcing agreement among institutions controlled by opposing parties. We use the 2021 Georgia U.S. Senate runoffs, which determined whether Democrats would have unified control of the federal government given preceding November victories by President-elect Biden and House Democrats, to evaluate support for anticipatory balancing. Leveraging an original survey of Georgia voters, we find no evidence of balancing within the general electorate and among partisans across differing model specifications. We use qualitative content analysis of voter electoral runoff intentions to support our findings and contextualize the lack of evidence for balancing withan original analysis showing the unprecedented partisan nature of contemporary Senate elections since direct-election began in 1914. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UNITED States senators, SELF-defense, ARCHIVES, and INTERNATIONAL relations

The aim of this paper is to analyze the role of former Arizona senator Dennis DeConcini during the Bosnian War. DeConcini, along with other congressional Bosnia hawks, supported the newly independent country in its self-defense during the 1992–1995 war. DeConcini's activism was mainly through the U.S. Helsinki Commission but he also undertook a number of steps with a view to legislative American foreign policy towards Bosnia in the early 1990s. Based on the congressional archive and DeConcini's papers at the University of Arizona, this article will piece together the story of how an Arizona senator became a champion of Bosnia on Capitol Hill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

POLARIZATION (Social sciences), POLICY sciences, RUNOFF elections, ELECTIONS, MAJORITIES, PARTISANSHIP, and PRESIDENTIAL candidates

The dramatic Democratic victories in the 2021 Georgia U.S. Senate runoffs handed Democrats their first majority since 2015 and, with this, unified Democratic control of Washington for the first time since 2011. While Democratic Leaders and President Joe Biden crafted their agenda, any hope of policy passage rested on complete unity in a 50–50 Senate and a narrow majority in the U.S. House. Against this backdrop, the 117th Senate is the most polarized since direct-election began in 1914 and, by popular accounts, the least deliberative in a generation. In this article, we examine the implications of partisan polarization for policymaking in the U.S. Senate throughout the direct-election era. First, we show that greater polarization coincides with more partisan Senate election outcomes, congruent with recent trends in the House. Today, over 90% of Senators represent states carried by their party's presidential nominee. Secondly, we show that polarization coincides with higher levels of observable obstruction, conflict, partisan unity, and narrower majorities. Lastly, we show that this polarization coincides with lower levels of deliberation in the form of consideration of floor amendments and committee meetings. Taken together, we paint a picture of a polarized Senate that is more partisan, more obstructionist, and less deliberative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

VOTER turnout, PARTISANSHIP, ELECTIONS, and GERRYMANDERING

Objective: Partisan bias occurs when votes are distributed across districts in such a way that even if the vote between two parties were equal, one party would win more seats than the other. Gerrymandering is a well‐established cause of partisan bias, but it is not the only one. In this article, we ask whether the decline of voter turnout can also influence partisan bias. Methods: We modified the Gelman–King partisan symmetry measure to make it sensitive to turnout differences across U.S. House elections from 1972 to 2018. Results: We found that turnout variation has caused partisan bias in U.S. House elections in the Democratic Party's favor since at least 1972, though turnout bias has gotten weaker in recent elections. Conclusion: While turnout bias can buffer the impact of turnout reductions, it has the potential to dramatically increase the number of seats a party loses when its supporters fail to vote. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INCOME distribution, PARTISANSHIP, and UNITED States legislators

Over the past twenty years, there has been much discussion about two of the most important recent trends in American politics: the increase in income inequality in the United States and the increase in ideological and partisan polarization, particularly in the U.S. House. These two national-level trends are commonly thought to be positively related. But, there are few tested theoretical connections between them, and it is potentially problematic to infer individual-level behavior from these aggregate-level trends. In fact, an examination of the literature reveals, at least, three different theoretical outcomes for district-level income inequality on voter and congressional ideological positions. I explore these district-level theoretical and empirical possibilities as well as test them over decades with three different measures of income inequality. I argue and demonstrate that higher district levels of income inequality are related to higher levels of ideological liberalism in the U.S. House. This stands in contrast to the national-level trends, but it tracks closely to traditional understandings of congressional behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PUBLIC officers, ACTIONS & defenses (Law), PROBLEM solving, and MENTAL representation

This article examines the relationship between demand for expert information from members of the US Congress and increased issue salience in the public. As problems become salient, policymakers should seek out expert information to define problems and identify effective policy solutions to address those problems. Previous work on elite mass public representation and government problem solving has relied on public actions by elected officials to evaluate this relationship. We rely instead on new data on the policy content of privately requested reports from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) from 1997 to 2017. We find strong evidence that members consult experts when issues become salient, even when controlling for legislative agendas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BUREAUCRACY, POLICY sciences, SEPARATION of powers, GOVERNMENT policy, GOVERNMENT agencies, and POLARIZATION (Social sciences)

Increasing ideological polarization and dysfunction in Congress raise questions about whether and how Congress remains capable of constraining the activities of other actors in the separation of powers system. In this article, I argue Congress uses nonstatutory policymaking tools to overcome the burdens of legislative gridlock in an increasingly polarized time to constrain executive branch actors. I leverage a new data set of committee reports issued by the House and Senate appropriations committees from fiscal years 1923 through 2019 to empirically explore these dynamics and evaluate my argument. Traditionally, these reports are a primary vehicle through which Congress directs agency policymaking in the appropriations process. Committees increasingly turn to them when passing legislation is most difficult and interbranch agency problems are most pronounced. In this way, nonstatutory mechanisms may help maintain the balance of power across branches, even when Congress faces gridlock‐induced incapacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

GAY rights, EQUALITY, POLARIZATION (Social sciences), DEMOCRATS' attitudes, REPUBLICANS, and LGBTQ+ people

The U.S. Supreme Court's recent application of employment protections to gays and lesbians in Bostock v. Clayton County highlights the striking absence of policy produced by the U.S. Congress despite two decades of increased public support for gay rights. With the notable exceptions of allowing gays and lesbians to serve in the military, and passing hate crimes legislation, every other federal policy advancing gay rights over the last three decades has been the product of a Supreme Court ruling or Executive Order. To better understand the reasons for this inaction, we examine the changing preferences of members of Congress on LGBTQ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer) issues. Examining scores from the Human Rights Campaign from 1989 to 2019, we find a striking polarization by the parties on LGBTQ issues, as Democrats have become much more supportive and Republicans even more opposed to gay rights. This change has been driven not by gerrymandering, mass opinion polarization, or elite backlash, but among Republicans by a mix of both conversion and replacement, and among Democrats primarily of replacement of more moderate members. The result is a striking lack of collective representation that leaves members of the LGBTQ community at risk to the whims of presidents and jurists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AGENDA setting theory (Communication) and LEGISLATIVE voting

The study of agenda power has largely been the study of negative agenda power. But standard measures of negative agenda power are insufficient to measure the majority's agenda choices: they only consider a small proportion of bills, only detail how often negative agenda power fails (rather than succeeds), and cannot help us understand positive agenda power. To understand the incentives and strategies of agenda decision-making, then, we must know about members' preferences on all bills. I develop an approach to estimate members' preferences on all bills, by generating quantitative characterizations of the policy content in each bill. I use the resulting estimates to examine both positive and negative agenda power using all bills and to directly compare levels of agenda power between chambers of the US Congress. While I find similarly strong negative agenda control in both chambers, I find substantially stronger positive agenda control in the House than the Senate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SOCIOCULTURAL factors, UNITED States presidential election, 2016, POLITICAL campaigns, and UNITED States politics & government, 2017-2021

Objectives: The political discourse surrounding the 2016 U.S. presidential election highlighted discontent with both Congress and corporations, a reality corroborated in recent scholarship highlighting declines in institutional confidence among U.S. citizens. Here we test theories of institutional confidence to understand the social and cultural determinants of confidence in Congress and corporations prior to the start of the 2016 presidential campaigns. Methods: We draw on data from the Religious Understandings of Science Survey, a nationally representative survey conducted in 2013–2014 (N = 9,416). Results: We find that political ideology largely explained confidence in corporations while social location (particularly racial‐ethnic identity and gender) strongly related to confidence in Congress. Seemingly opposing factors converged to predict trust in both institutions. Conclusions: Institutional confidence is shaped not only by social and cultural factors but also by the symbolic functions of institutions themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UNITED States senators, SOCIAL media, REPUTATION, COLLECTIVE representation, and LOCAL government

Twitter is changing strategic messaging in the U.S. Senate. Senators are using Twitter to frame their political brand for constituents, fostering a new digital dialog with constituents. I propose a constituent-driven theory of strategic messaging where senators curate a reputation on Twitter that matches their perceived expectations of their primary constituency. Representation on social media challenges what we know about senators' institutionally and politically constrained behavior by analyzing them in a new media climate where individual discretion is high and the costs are low. Using a unique dataset of more than 180,000 hand-coded tweets by senators, I show that senators develop two types of digital constituent relationships – an issue-oriented, national reputation versus traditional outreach to geographic constituents. Senators with issue-based constituencies prioritize policy, conveying an issue-driven style of representation; however, senators with tepid electoral futures pair their policy rhetoric with state-based issues or local concerns. These findings expand the scope of existing theories on congressional communication and link the technological shifts in Congress to information senators use to build relationships with voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

MILITARY intelligence, RESEARCH & development, HISTORY, WAR reparations, and UNITED States. Air Force

This article explains how exploitation of research and development (R&D) configured into the post–World War II policies of the U.S. Army Air Forces (AAF) and U.S. Air Force (USAF). The narrative follows the coordination of operations LUSTY, OVERCAST, and PAPERCLIP and the Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) in the AAF’s exploitation of intelligence and reparations for postwar policies and politics. The history of the SAG’s efforts from 1944 to 1947 reveals the intensity with which the AAF and its consultants in the aeronautical sciences pursued Nazi R&D. The article helps explain the place of intelligence and reparations in AAF and USAF policies for postwar R&D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through a quantitative analysis of Taiwan–related legislation between 1979 and 2020, the article finds that the degree of Taiwan–related legislation is significantly correlated with the degree of tension in U.S.—China relations. While a deteriorating cross–Taiwan Strait relationship is clearly associated with the increasing legislative activities for the sake of Taiwan, an improving relationship from the state of fair to good cannot guarantee a decrease of such activities. A unified government and the extent of the Taiwan lobby are both helpful in passing pro–Taiwan acts but statistically insignificant. A content analysis of pro–Taiwan bills approved by the Trump administration suggests a creeping movement to "normalize" U.S–Taiwan relations with congressional activism and the less-restrained White House as a co–engine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SPENDING power (Constitutional law), STATE laws, and STATE power

Congress's spending power allows the federal government to spend money to provide for the general welfare of the United States. While this "general welfare" language was initially understood as barring Congress from apportioning money for local purposes, the Supreme Court's interpretation of the spending power has treated this limitation as effectively nonjusticiable. Consequently, the spending power has provided Congress with an attractive carrot to coax states into enacting regulations that Congress could not achieve through its other powers. This Note challenges the notion that the general welfare limitation of the Spending Clause should be considered nonjusticiable. Instead, it calls for a return to the original understanding that the spending power could not be exercised to promote purely local purposes, an understanding that the Court adopted in its earlier spending cases. Relying on principles of collective action federalism and the "substantial effects" test from United States v. Lopez, this Note proposes distinguishing between general and local spending by looking at the anticipated effects of the spending beyond the recipient of the funds itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

GENDER, POLITICAL accountability, WOMEN legislators, IDEOLOGY, and GOVERNMENT policy

We study how officeholder gender affects issue accountability and examine whether constituents evaluate women and men legislators differently on the basis of their policy records. Data from 2008 through 2018 show that constituents' approval ratings and vote choices in US House elections are more responsive to the policy records of women legislators than of men legislators. These patterns are concentrated among politically aware constituents, but we find no evidence that the results are driven disproportionately by either women or men constituents or by issues that are gendered in stereotypical ways. Additional analyses suggest that while constituents penalize women and men legislators at similar rates for policy incongruence, women legislators are rewarded more than men as they are increasingly aligned with their constituents. Our results show that accountability standards are applied differently across legislator gender and suggest a link between the quality of policy representation and the gender composition of American legislatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PARTISANSHIP, CAMPAIGN funds, POLITICAL campaigns, CAMPAIGN promises, PRESIDENTIAL candidates, and INAUGURATION

On the campaign trail and at his inauguration, Joe Biden pledged, above all else, to be a uniter to restore the soul of America. At the end of his first year in office, many campaign promises have been met, but unity has not been one. Far from transcending partisanship as promised, Biden has embraced the levers of presidential discretion and power inherent within the modern executive office to advance partisan objectives. He is not just a victim of polarization, but actively contributes to it. This is not unexpected. Rather it is the culmination of a decades-long reorientation within both major parties: the rise of an executive-centered party-system, with Democrats and Republicans alike relying on presidents and presidential candidates to pronounce party doctrine, raise campaign funds, campaign on behalf of their partisan brethren, mobilize grass roots support, and advance party programs. Like Barack Obama and Donald Trump before him, Biden has aggressively used executive power to cut the Gordian knot of partisan gridlock in Congress. Even pandemic politics is not immune to presidential partisanship; in fact, it has accentuated the United States' presidency-centered democracy, which weakens the public resolve to confront and solve national problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

EXECUTIVE power, PRESIDENTS of the United States, POWER (Social sciences), PRACTICAL politics, LEGISLATORS, and UNITED States politics & government

Understanding unilateralism may require examining the conditions that precede and motivate the president's action. But if members of Congress can anticipate unilateral action, their failure to legislate cannot be explained by "gridlock intervals" in a standard spatial model. I argue instead that they may willingly surrender authority to the president to head off potential attacks from voters or interest groups. This helps to explain the president's accumulation of authority over time. More broadly, I argue that just as a large literature has examined outside pressure on Congress in isolation, we should examine its influence in the presence of the president's unilateral powers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ENVIRONMENTAL policy, UNITED States elections, VOTING, and LEGISLATORS

Do elections affect legislators' voting patterns? We investigate this question in the context of environmental policy in the U.S. Congress. We theorize that since the general public is generally in favor of legislation protecting the environment, legislators have an incentive to favor the public over industry and vote for pro‐environment legislation at election time. The argument is supported by analyses of data on environmental roll call votes for the U.S. Congress from 1970 to 2013 where we estimate the likelihood of casting a pro‐environment vote as a function of the time to an election. While Democrats are generally more likely to cast a pro‐environment vote before an election, this effect is much stronger for Republicans when the legislator won the previous election by a thinner margin. The election effect is maximized for candidates receiving substantial campaign contributions from the (anti‐environment) oil and gas industry. Analysis of Twitter data confirms that Congressmembers make pro‐environmental statements and highlight their roll call voting behavior during the election season. These results show that legislators do strategically adjust their voting behavior to favor the public immediate prior to an election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

RACIAL minorities, LEGAL status of voters, and UNITED States Congressional elections

The author comments on the single-member district mandate for U.S. House of Representatives elections that was enacted by the Congress in 1967. Topics covered include the Congress' intentions for enacting the law including the representation of racial minority communities in the House, the law's unintended consequences on the political process, and the implications for the First Amendment political association rights of voters.

UNITED States senators, CONSTITUENTS (Persons), POLICY sciences, DOMESTIC travel, REPRESENTATIVE government, ELECTION districts, and ATTENTION

Is local attention a substitute for policy representation? Fenno (1978) famously described how legislators develop personal ties with their constituents through periodic visits to their districts and carefully crafted communications. Existing work suggests that such interactions insulate incumbents electorally, creating less need to represent constituents' policy preferences. Surprisingly, this important argument has never been tested systematically. In this paper, I use data on senator travel and staffing behavior along with survey data from the 2011–2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to investigate this claim. In addition to showing that areas with important campaign donors are significantly more likely to receive resources, I find that local visits may decrease approval among ideologically opposed constituents. Furthermore, I find inconsistent evidence regarding the effectiveness of local staff. These results suggest that local attention does not always cultivate goodwill in the district. Under polarized politics, home style does not effectively substitute for policy representation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ELECTION of legislators, ELECTION districts, POLITICAL candidates -- Attitudes, PERSONALITY, VOTERS -- Attitudes, and UNITED States. Congress. House

This article addresses the question of appearance-based effects by looking at the U.S. House of Representatives election 2016. We broaden the focus beyond existing studies by offering a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the three traits attractiveness, competence, and likability while simultaneously taking into account confounding third variables and possible interactions. Corresponding to the comparative character of electoral competition in the districts, we developed a relative measure of the three traits which we apply in an online survey. This measure also takes into account the raters' latency times, that is, their clicking speed, as a weighting factor for their ambiguity in the ratings. With these data we test whether appearance matters for the electoral outcome. We find that attractiveness positively affects the vote share, whereas perceived likability and competence play no role. The study also tests to what extent the found appearance effects are conditioned by incumbency status, age, and gender of the contestants. Furthermore, it gives hints which aspects of their appearance candidates could change to perform better at the ballot box. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ECONOMIC sanctions, PRESIDENTS, INTERNATIONAL relations, and PARTIES

This article explores whether party polarisation in the American Congress affects the length of legislated sanctions. While Congress can enact sanctions, it usually authorises the president to waive, suspend or terminate them. However, Congress can prevent the president from ending a sanction if both parties can cooperate to block the presidential proposal or pass a sanction bill challenging the presidential preference. Borrowing from moderate polarisation argument that both parties can cooperate only when they are moderately polarised, I argue that the probability of sanction termination declines if Congress is moderately polarised but increases when Congress is either least or extremely polarised. This is because only under moderately polarised Congress can both parties cooperate to stop the sanction termination. I test this argument using TIES data (1945–2005) and find support for this expectation. This research contributes to our knowledge on the role of congressional dynamics in shaping American foreign policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

TIME series analysis, POLARIZATION (Social sciences), TREND analysis, CORPORA, and PROBABILITY theory

This study investigates least delicate patterns of appraisal in two diachronic corpora of UK Parliament and U.S. Congress speeches over the last two centuries, focusing on diachronic changes and trends of systemic probabilities of least delicate engagement and attitude polarity. Based on computational algorithms that automatically extract appraisal instances and intersections from the two corpora, the comparative analysis carried out in this paper incorporates several statistical methods, including homogeneity or 'change-point' tests, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and time-series Correspondence Analysis. The results indicate that, in both corpora, probabilities of monoglossic as well as attitudinal patterns (as opposed to neutral ones) follow statistically significant upward trends. In addition, positive polarity is increasing steadily, especially in the U.S. Congress. appraisal intersections are also dynamically changing depending on changes in sociopolitical circumstances. More specifically, in the formative and early years during which party conflicts were intensified, heteroglossic patterns are favored. In war and post-war periods, monoglossic patterns are more associated with neutral polarity. In recent decades, during which political polarization hit a peak, monoglossic patterns begin to favor attitudinal polarity. These findings are discussed in terms of possible causal and correlational interpretations, limitations and directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SOCIAL scientists, POLITICAL scientists, CIVIL service positions, CONGRESSIONAL hearings (U.S.), and RESEARCH institutes

Congressional hearings are a venue in which social scientists present their views and analyses before lawmakers in the United States, however quantitative data on their representation has been lacking. We present new, publicly available, data on the rates at which anthropologists, economists, political scientists, psychologists, and sociologists appeared before United States congressional hearings from 1946 through 2016. We show that social scientists were present at some 10,347 hearings and testified 15,506 times. Economists testify before the US Congress far more often than other social scientists, and constitute a larger proportion of the social scientists testifying in industry and government positions. We find that social scientists' testimony is increasingly on behalf of think tanks; political scientists, in particular, have gained much more representation through think tanks. Sociology, and psychology's representation before Congress has declined considerably beginning in the 1980s. Anthropologists were the least represented. These findings show that academics are representing a more diverse set of organizations, but economists continue to be far more represented than other disciplines before the US Congress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CAMPAIGN funds, ELECTIONS, POPULAR vote, VOTING, LATENT variables, and FINANCE

• The paper rests on a new and more comprehensive dataset built from government sources. • It uses the data to show that the relations between money and popular votes for major parties in all elections from 1980 to 2018 for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives are well approximated by straight lines. • It considers potential challenges to this "linear model" of money and elections on statistical grounds, notably those arising from possible reciprocal causation between money and votes ("endogeneity"). • The paper builds a spatial latent instrumental variable model to tackle this much discussed problem and checks its results by studying relations between changes in gambling odds and contributions in key elections. Both approaches suggest that reciprocal causation may happen to some degree, but that money's independent influence on elections remains powerful. This paper analyzes whether money influences election outcomes. Using a new and more comprehensive dataset built from government sources, the paper shows that the relations between money and votes cast for major parties in elections for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives from 1980 to 2018 are well approximated by straight lines. It then considers possible challenges to this "linear model" of money and elections on statistical grounds, resting on possible endogeneity arising from reciprocal causation between, for example, popularity and votes. The paper develops a spatial Bayesian latent instrumental variable model to tackle this much discussed problem. It checks its results by studying relations between changes in gambling odds and contributions in key elections. Both approaches suggest that reciprocal causation may happen to some degree, but that money's independent influence on elections remains powerful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CLIMATE change & politics, CLIMATE change skepticism, POLARIZATION (Social sciences), PARTISANSHIP, ENVIRONMENTAL policy, UNITED States climate change policy, and UNITED States politics & government

Scholars who study the failure of climate change policy in the United States tend to focus on the mechanics of denial and the coordinated efforts of political operatives, conservative think tanks, and partisan news outlets to cast doubt on what has become overwhelming scientific consensus. In contrast, we address a factor that has been understudied until now – the role of climate change advocacy in the U.S. Congress. Using quantitative text analysis on a corpus of floor speeches published in the Congressional Record between 1996 and 2015, we find notable differences in the language partisans use. Democrats communicate in ways that are message-based, emphasizing the weight of scientific evidence, while Republicans tend towards a softer, cue-based narrative based on anecdotes and storytelling. We end with a discussion of what climate change advocates can hope to accomplish through the 'politics of talk,' especially in an age of heightened polarization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LEGISLATIVE bills, GOVERNMENT agencies, and LEGISLATION

Legislative drafting in the United States Congress is a dynamic process with many actors working to revise both a bill's policy and language. Rather than a central drafting office or government agency responsible for drafting bills, legislative language and amendments come from many sources: Congressional committee staff, the House and Senate Offices of Legislative Counsel, special interest lobbyists, and executive agencies. The hope is that bills become stronger and better drafted as it moves through the process; but that is not always the case. In addition, Congress still does not use a single standard drafting style. Still, there have been improvements in recent decades. For example, the House of Representatives developed a preferred drafting style and created a manual to guide drafters. However, Congress can and should do more to improve legislative quality. In this article I suggest several reforms: empowering the committee chairs to not just guide legislation through Congress, but promote better quality legislation; requiring greater drafting style standardisation; creating new materials and trainings to assist legislative actors, particularly committee staff, to recognise defective drafting and appreciate the value of careful drafting practices; and creating a advisory commission that will bring together key drafting participants to propose further reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COMMERCIAL treaties, CROP yields, LEGISLATORS, FREE trade, AGRICULTURAL policy, and LEGISLATIVE voting

Does comparative advantage explain legislators' support for trade liberalization? We use data on potential crop yields as determined by weather and soil characteristics to derive a new plausibly exogenous measure of comparative advantage in agriculture for each district in the United States. Evidence shows that comparative advantage in agriculture predicts how legislators vote on the ratification of preferential trade agreements in Congress. We show that legislators in districts with high agricultural comparative advantage are more likely to mention that trade agreements are good for agriculture in House floor debates preceding roll call votes on their ratifications. Individuals living in the same districts are also more likely to support free trade. Our analysis and results contribute to the literature on the political economy of trade and its distributional consequences and to our understanding of the economic determinants of legislators' voting decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LEGISLATIVE voting, VOTING, and PRIMARIES

Theoretical and empirical models of congressional voting assume that legislators vote with the sole purpose to move policy closer to their ideologically ideal point. While NOMINATE correctly classifies most votes cast by members of Congress, a significant number of votes are misclassified and coded as spatial error. The literature on congressional voting assumes this error to be random and idiosyncratic across members. We argue that spatial errors are systematic across members, with spatial error being more likely on roll-call votes tackling salient policy issues and among members representing constituencies with greater ideological divergence between the median voter and the member's primary election constituency. Using Aldrich-McKelvey scaling to place legislators and constituencies in the same ideological space, we find support for our theory. We attribute this finding to the electoral uncertainty faced by members of both the House and Senate representing constituencies with greater ideological divergence between these key electoral principals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PRESIDENTIAL system, LEGISLATIVE voting, VOTING, COMMITTEE reports, PARTISANSHIP, CONFLICT of interests, and IDEOLOGY

Why do legislators switch their votes between the committee and floor stages in multiparty presidential systems? The literature on the US Congress has argued that switches are conditional on cross‐cutting pressures by competing principals (i.e., party leaders and interest groups), partisanship, electoral competitiveness, ideology, seniority, and informational updates. This article argues that unlike in the US two‐party system, in multiparty systems electoral competitiveness increases the likelihood of switching. Additionally, the practice of switching is more likely for legislators whose competing principals are leaders with conflicting electoral interests. We test these hypotheses analyzing vote switches between committee reports and roll‐call votes in the Argentine Chamber of Deputies. Our results indicate that legislative vote switching indeed behaves differently in multiparty than in a two‐party presidential system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COMPUTER simulation, COMPUTER engineering, COMPUTER algorithms, and SET design

Recent research has leveraged computer simulations to identify the effect of gerrymandering on partisan bias in U.S. legislatures. As a result of this method, researchers are able to distinguish between the intentional partisan bias caused by gerrymandering and the natural partisan bias that stems from the geographic sorting of partisan voters. However, this research has yet to explore the effect of gerrymandering on other biases like reduced electoral competition and incumbency protection. Using a computer algorithm to design a set of districts without political intent, I measure the extent to which the current districts have been gerrymandered to produce safer seats in Congress. I find that gerrymandering only has a minor effect on the average district, but does produce a number of safe seats for both Democrats and Republicans. Moreover, these safe seats tend to be located in states where a single party controls the districting process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

MAJORITIES, FILIBUSTERS (Political science), PARTISANSHIP, BIPARTISANSHIP, UNITED States senators, and COALITIONS

The United States Senate is marching, Senate style, toward majority rule. Chamber rules have long required super, rather than simple, majorities to end debate on major and minor matters alike. But occasionally over its history – and several times over the past decade – the Senate has pared back procedural protections afforded to senators, making it easier for cohesive majorities to secure their policy goals. Both parties have pursued such changes – sometimes imposed by simple majority, other times by a bipartisan coalition. Why has the pace of change accelerated, and with what consequences for the Senate? In this article, I connect rising partisanship and electoral competition to the weakening of partisan commitments to Senate supermajority rule. No one can predict with any certainty whether the Senate will yet abolish the so-called "legislative filibuster." But pressures continue to mount towards that end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AMERICAN women in politics, POLITICAL parties, SOCIAL movements, and PARTISANSHIP

Women's elective office-holding stands at an all-time high in the United States. Yet women are far from parity. This underrepresentation is surprising given that more women than men vote. Gender–as a feature of both society and politics–has always worked alongside race to determine which groups possess the formal and informal resources and opportunities critical for winning elective office. But how gender connects to office-holding is not fixed; instead, women's access to office has been shaped by changes in law, policy, and social roles, as well as the activities and strategies of social movement actors, political parties, and organizations. In the contemporary period, data from the Center for American Women and Politics reveal that while women are a growing share of Democratic officeholders, they are a declining share of Republican officeholders. Thus, in an era of heightened partisan polarization, women's situation as candidates increasingly depends on party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DEMOCRATS (United States), REPUBLICANS, and ELECTIONS

In this paper, we test the optimal position taking strategy for senators running for reelection vis-à-vis their party's president. Using data from a survey experiment conducted using a national sample, we examine the responses towards three hypothetical Democrats: (i) 'embracing' or supportive of Barack Obama (ii.) ambiguous about their attitude towards Obama (iii.) 'eschewing' or opposed to Obama. Comparing participants exposed to the ambiguous and the embracing Democrat, we find some evidence of a difference in candidate preference, but little evidence to suggest that the strategy gains votes. Comparing participants exposed to the eschewing Democrat to the embracing Democrat, we find that the strategy does yield some gains but these are offset by losses amongst the base. Overall, these findings suggest that the optimal reelection strategy for Democratic candidates is to remain supportive, unless they are running in areas with a high concentration of Republicans—then the eschew strategy can yield some gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

WAR on Terrorism, 2001-2009, CIVILIANS in war, CENTRALITY, WORLD War I, BROTHERLINESS, FILIPINO Americans, TERRORISM, and MILITARY bases

I Bound by War i surveys the Philippine-U.S. relationship from U.S. acquisition in 1899 to the return of the Balangiga Bells (war booty from the Philippine-American War that followed annexation) in December 2018. Capozzola argues that the military connections were the relationship's most important aspect: "War shaped every aspect of the Pacific Century, from how Americans and Filipinos thought about each other to how they lived together" (7). These matters were most evident with Philippine Scouts and with those Filipinos who were allowed the join the U.S. Navy, most to serve as messmen and stewards (reflecting racial stereotypes). [Extracted from the article]

POLITICAL agenda, RELIGIOUS identity, and POLITICAL parties

This article analyzes the use of religious language on Twitter by members of the U.S. Congress (MOCs). Politicians use various media platforms to communicate about their political agendas and their personal lives. In the United States, religious language is often part of the messaging from politicians to their constituents. This is done carefully and often strategically and across media platforms. With members of Congress increasingly using Twitter to connect with constituents on a regular basis, we want to explain who uses religious language on Twitter, when, and how. Using 1.5 million tweets scraped from members of Congress in April of 2018, we find that MOCs from both major political parties make use of a "religious code" on Twitter in order to send messages about their own identities as well as to activate the religious identities of their constituents. However, Republicans use the code more extensively and with Judeo-Christian-specific terms. Additionally, we discuss gender effects for the ways MOCs use "religious code" on Twitter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]