The article presents an editorial focusing on marketing questions relating to the introduction of new products. The author believes that in the past, there was little product choice. In the 1960s however, variety has brought up new questions for marketing personnel, namely when to enter a new product into the marketplace. He thinks that an evaluation period of about two and a half years is needed to truly get a good idea of how well a product might do in the grocery marketplace.
Marketing planning, New product development, Product management, Industrial research, Rapid prototyping, Prototypes, Decision making, and Industrial management
Modeling efforts in the area of new product introductions have had a significant impact on marketing planning and strategy. One result of these efforts, BBDO's New Product Early Warning System (NEWS), has been used since the late 1960s to provide marketing managers with forecasts and diagnostic reformation regarding their new product strategies. This article presents the specification of the NEWS model, its parameter estimation methods, and its validation. A brief case history is also included which illustrates how the model is applied in a typical new product situation. NEWS is designed to use a variety of readily obtainable input data to generate forecasts of consumer awareness, trial, repeat purchase, usage, sales, and market share for a new brand. These outputs, combined with diagnostics from the model, can then be incorporated into the marketing plan in a way that will improve the new entry's chances of success in the marketplace. The model can be used to project early test market data (NEWS/Market); or it can be used to analyze pre-test market data (NEWS/Planner). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Diffusion of innovations, Marketing planning, Diffusion of innovations theory, New product development, Product management, Commercial products, Regression analysis, Least squares, Rapid prototyping, and Industrial research
A maximum likelihood approach is proposed for estimating an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance originally considered by Bass (1969). The suggested approach allows: (1) computation of approximate standard errors for the diffusion model parameters, and (2) determination of the required sample size for forecasting the adoption level to any desired degree of accuracy. Using histograms from eight different product renovations, the maximum likelihood estimates are shown to outperform estimates front a model calibrated using ordinary least squares, m terms of both goodness of fit measures and one-step ahead forecasts. However, these advantages are not obtained without cost. The coefficients of innovation and imitation are easily interpreted in terms of the expected adoption pattern, but individual adoption times must be assumed to represent independent draws from this distribution In addition, instead of using standard linear regression, another (simple) program must be employed to estimate the model. Thus, tradeoffs between the maximum likelihood and least squares approaches are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
'Prototyping' is frequently cited as an effective alternative technique to traditional approaches for the development of systems. This paper reviews recent literature on the subject and categorizes prototyping techniques that appear to be widely used. A large number of tools have been used for prototyping and they are discussed in relation to the technique employed and other factors in the programming environment. Issues of programming methodology raised by prototypes are also discussed.
Communications of the ACM. Jun 1984, Vol. 27 Issue 6, p556-563. 8p.
DESIGN and EVALUATION
A two-phased research project comparing the prototyping approach with the more traditional life cycle approach finds that prototyping facilitates communication between users and designers during the design process. However, the findings also indicate that designers who used prototyping experienced difficulties in managing and controlling the design process
Consumer behavior, New product development, Product management, Rapid prototyping, Industrial research, and Resource allocation
Few published articles have dealt with the unique problem associated with the management of new, infrequently purchased products that exhibit Seasonal patterns of demand, Marvin Berkowitz demonstrates how seasonality influences the performance of a new consumer durable good, a new brand of battery-operated lights, during a 2-year period following its launch. The data presented support four hypotheses: (1) the newest brands in a product category, when compared to dominant brands, will be subject to higher seasonal variation in consumer awareness, advertising recall, product attribute positioning, and purchase intent; (2) the relationship between seasonal effects and brand share within a product category will not be linear: (3) differences between product attributes for competing brands will be most apparent to consumers during periods of peak seasonal activity: and (4) perceptions of product attributes that are most important in the buying decision are subject to the least seasonal variation. The article also demonstrates how seasonal variations may be charted and discusses how this analysis contributes to the overall management of the new product. INSET: BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Public Relations Quarterly. Winter86/87, Vol. 31 Issue 4, p25. 4p.
Mass media, Reporters & reporting, Public relations, Industrial management, Executives, Industrial publicity, Interviewing in journalism, and Rapid prototyping
The article presents information on how one can face staff reporters with special reference to business executives. Announcements of a new product, top executive change or corporate expansion generally are welcome assignments for public relations people and corporate spokespersons. Happily, there are techniques that can be useful not only when talking to reporters but also in discussions with customers, community leaders and other key publics when one do not want to release a lot of information. Unfortunately, a no comment response is like a lightning rod. It can result in TV stations carrying footage on the evening news showing their reporters standing in front of one's organization's closed front door or locked gates or conducting an empty chair interview. It causes the reporter to search out sources who will comment people like disgruntled employees, hostile competitors or other outside observers.
Marketing, Algorithms, New product development, Commercial products, Manufactures, Rapid prototyping, Industrial research, Sample size (Statistics), and Statistical sampling
Four algorithms lot locating an "optimal" new product in a multiattribute product space--Albers and Brockhoff's PROPOPP: Gavish, Horsky, and Srikanth's Method IV: May and Sudharshan's PRODSRCH; and GRID SEARCH--are compared in terms of the relative share of preferences the new product will capture under different simulated market environments. These environments were both ones for which the algorithms were designed as well as other "more realistic" environments. Results indicate that algorithm performance is sensitive to the number of customers or segments, and the presence of probabilistic choice, and less sensitive to the numbers of existing products. Gavish, Horsky, and Srikanth IV (GHS IV) and PROPOPP performed best under the market conditions for which they were designed and GHS IV proved quite robust under variation from these conditions PROPOPP's performance deteriorated. however, in large sample size problems (n ≥ 200). PRODSRCII (a general purpose optimizer) was inferior trader these special market conditions, but superior under other more general ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
A conceptual language (CPL) is proposed, derived from natural language theory, for specifying both the static and dynamic component of a conceptual model using the same basic structures. A software tool is also described, which automatically generates a prototype database from the conceptual model, are automatically checked when the prototype database changes. Also the events, declared in the dynamic component of the conceptual model, are automatically converted into procedures which operate on the prototype database.
Information & Management. 1988, Vol. 14 Issue 3, p133-142. 10p.
DESIGN, LIBRARY users, and GRAPHIC arts
Designing complex information systems requires the cooperation of the designer, the builder, and the user. A number of problems that stem from the different backgrounds of these people must be overcome in order to achieve efficient communication among them. Several 'vehicles for communication,' or forms of specification language, are discussed, including graphic diagrams, tables, natural languages, and formal languages. Although intended for investigating design options, the technique of prototyping also provides a mechanism for communication that is particularly useful when requirements are incomplete. These various forms of expression are compared, and the strengths and weaknesses of each are highlighted.
Effective information requirements analysis (IRA) is critical for the success of application systems. Literature has mainly defined the contingencies under which specific IRA methods are most effective for determining the content of information. This paper shows how IRA methods can supplement each other, instead of being viewed as alternatives. A process for combining IRA methods is developed. Resolving differences between Decision Analysis and Data Analysis by developing different kinds of Prototypes is presented as an integrated framework of IRA. Case studies illustrating this approach are included. The paper extends research in two areas: IRA and Prototyping
Human Factors. Aug 1988, Vol. 30 Issue 4, p395-414. 20p.
ARTIFICIAL intelligence, ATTITUDE (Psychology), DESIGN, and HUMAN engineering
This paper discusses the critical psychological and human factors issues that must be addressed in the design, prototyping, and acceptance of expert systems. Specifically, human factors considerations are addressed from the development, rapid prototyping, and end-user perspectives. Where possible, human factors guidelines are offered for each knowledge-processing stage underlying expert system development, prototyping, evaluation, and acceptance.
Marketing, Pricing, Industrial research, Oligopolies, Game theory, Commercial products, Profit, Rapid prototyping, and Product management
This paper deals with the determination of optimal pricing policies for firms in oligopolistic markets. The problem is studied as a differential game and optimal pricing policies are established as Nash open-loop controls. Cost learning effects are assumed such that unit costs are decreasing with cumulative output. Discounting of future profits is also taken into consideration. Initially, the problem is addressed in a general framework, and we proceed to study some specific cases that are related to models presented in recent literature. Three basic classes of sales dynamics are analyzed: competition with price effects only, competition with price as well as adoption effects, and competition with adoption effects only. In some cases it turns out that results which hold for the monopoly case, carry over to the multi-firm case, in the sense that the qualitative structure of optimal pricing strategies is the same in the monopoly and the oligopoly cases. However, due to competitive interdependencies, differences certainly exist in the levels as well as the rates of change of optimal prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ARTIFICIAL intelligence, EXPERT systems (Computer science), INTERACTIVE computer systems, and KNOWLEDGE acquisition (Expert systems)
This paper describes trends in knowledge support environments — integrated interactive knowledge acquisition systems and expert system shells — that can provide a specialist community with tools supporting a wide range of knowledge processes. These systems extrapolate the trend from human knowledge engineering, through automated interviewing of the expert, to continuing on-line access to both knowledge acquisition and application processes. In knowledge support systems the distinctions between expert, knowledge engineer and client roles are deliberately blurred, and a diversity of knowledge processes and changing roles are supported within an entire interacting community. A prototype knowledge support system is described with examples of some of the knowledge acquisition and application tools provided. It is suggested that such systems provide a major knowledge-based technology with commercial implications and applications going beyond those currently envisioned for expert systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Using data collected on new products presented to a major channel intermediary, the authors estimate logistic regression models to describe the intermediary's accept/reject decisions for those products. Re-suits indicate how different variables influence those decisions. The logistic model is shown to fit extremely well with excellent validation performance. Implications of these results for marketing strategies and for improving performance of the marketing system are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Consumer protection, Consumer behavior, Product management, Product obsolescence, Durable consumer goods, New product development, Product life cycle, and Rapid prototyping
The issue of product obsolescence is addressed by examining the optimal sales strategy of a monopolist firm that may introduce an improved version of its current product. Consumers' expectations of a forthcoming product lowers the price that they are willing to pay for the current product because of its loss in value due to obsolescence. The new product is characterized by consumers' increased willingness to pay and by its competitive interaction with the old product. These characteristics affect the tradeoff that the firm makes between the cost of waiting for new product sales versus the cost of cannibalizing these sales. We analyze the effect of these characteristics of the new product on the firm's optimal sales strategy. We consider the various policy measures available to the firm, including limiting initial sales in order to lower cannibalization of the new product, buying back the earlier version of the product in order to generate greater demand for the new product, and announcements of future product introductions. We find that, for modest levels of product improvement, the firm's optimal policy is to phase out sales of the old product, while for large improvements a buy-back policy is more profitable. Lastly we find that the firm is better off if it informs consumers whether a new product is forthcoming. (Durable Goods; Product Obsolescence; Buy-Backs; Cannibalization) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Work reported in this paper is part of a continuing effort to apply rapid prototyping and Artificial Intelligence techniques to problems associated with projected Space Station-era information management systems. In particular, timely updating of the various databases and knowledge structures within a proposed intelligent information management system (IIMS) is critical to support decision making processes. Because of the significantly large amounts of data entering the IIMS on a daily basis, information updates will need to be automatically performed with some systems requiring that data be incorporated and made available to users within a few hours. Meeting these demands depends first, on the design and implementation of information structures that are easily modified and expanded, and second, on the incorporation of intelligent automated update techniques that will allow meaningful information relationships to be established. This paper examines potential techniques for developing such an automated update capability and examines IIMS update requirements in light of results obtained from the IIMS prototyping effort.