Uniejewski, Bartosz, Marcjasz, Grzegorz, and Weron, Rafał
International Journal of Forecasting. Oct2019, Vol. 35 Issue 4, p1533-1547. 15p.
Electricity pricing, Markets, Prices, Market design & structure (Economics), Forecasting, Load forecasting (Electric power systems), and Electricity
We use a unique set of prices from the German EPEX market and take a closer look at the fine structure of intraday markets forelectricity, with their continuous trading for individual load periods up to 30 min before delivery. We apply the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in order to gain statistically sound insights on variable selection and provide recommendations for very short-term electricity price forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Markets, Forecasting, Prices, Electricity, Wavelet transforms, and Neural circuitry
In this paper, a new feature selection and forecast engine is presented for day ahead prediction of electricity prices, which are so valuable for both producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets. In a competitive electricity market, forecast of energy prices is a key information for the market participants. However, price signal usually has a complex behavior due to its nonlinearity, non-stationary, and time variance. Also, an appropriate feature selection is crucial for accurate forecasting. In this paper, a two-step approach that identifies a set of candidate features based on the data characteristics proposed and then selects a subset of them using correlation and instance-based feature selection methods, applied in a systematic way. Then, a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and a hybrid forecast method is presented based on neural network (NN) and an optimization algorithms. The proposed method is examined on PJM electricity market and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. These comparisons illustrate effectiveness of the proposed strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
We specify a structural asymmetric vector error-correction model to identify and estimate the demand and supply functions in hourly day-ahead wholesale electricity markets. In doing so, we provide, inter alia, new insights into a well-established but unresolved issue concerning the extent of the demand elasticity to price in these markets. We show that whilst demand appears to be inelastic in the short-run, the quantity traded on the market is significantly influenced by the price level and responds to previous disequilibria in the supply curve through an asymmetric error-correction mechanism, reacting to a positive disequilibrium but not to a negative one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Electricity and its derivatives show peculiar features in deregulated conditions. These features are partly shared with other energies such as gas and oil but on the other hand electricity can't be compared with any other commodity because of its nonstorability which causes among other consequences extreme price spikes. Deregulation is approaching in South East Europe and we have to learn lessons from other markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Hellström, Jörgen, Lundgren, Jens, and Yu, Haishan
Energy Economics. Nov2012, Vol. 34 Issue 6, p1774-1781. 8p.
Energy economics, Empirical research, Markets, Time series analysis, Economic models, Prices, Economic structure, Electricity, and Caloric expenditure
Abstract: The paper empirically explores the possible causes behind electricity price jumps in the Nordic electricity market, Nord Pool. A time-series model (a mixed GARCH–EARJI jump model) capturing the common statistical features of electricity prices is used to identify price jumps. By the model, a categorical variable is defined distinguishing no, positive and negative jumps. The causes for the jumps are then explored through the use of ordered probit models in a second stage. The empirical results indicate that the structure of the market plays an important role in whether shocks in the demand and supply for electricity translate into price jumps. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
Energy Policy. Oct2011, Vol. 39 Issue 10, p6178-6189. 12p.
Markets, Market power, Prices, Public welfare, Energy shortages, Electric vehicles, and Electricity
Abstract: We use a game-theoretic model to analyze the impacts of a hypothetical fleet of plug-in electric vehicles on the imperfectly competitive German electricity market. Electric vehicles bring both additional demand and additional storage capacity to the market. We determine the effects on prices, welfare, and electricity generation for various cases with different players in charge of vehicle operations. Vehicle loading increases generator profits, but decreases consumer surplus in the power market. If excess vehicle batteries can be used for storage, welfare results are reversed: generating firms suffer from the price-smoothing effect of additional storage, whereas power consumers benefit despite increasing overall demand. Strategic players tend to under-utilize the storage capacity of the vehicle fleet, which may have negative welfare implications. In contrast, we find a market power-mitigating effect of electric vehicle recharging on oligopolistic generators. Overall, electric vehicles are unlikely to be a relevant source of market power in Germany in the foreseeable future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
Power Economics. 6/1/2005, Vol. 9 Issue 11, p8-10. 3p.
Markets, Economic competition, Prices, and Electricity
The article reports that last week saw three separate developments, which speak volumes about how Europe's electricity market is developing and why it differs so much from other markets. These respective developments were: a report from Accenture, which concluded that Great Britain enjoys some of the lowest electricity prices in Europe, which the report attributes to the competitive market environment and the generation fuels used; an announcement from the European Commission that the investigation into stalled competition was being delayed; and, the announcement from Scottish Power that it had agreed the sale of its U.S. PacifiCorp business.
We investigate the presence of significant electricity forward risk premia, using data from three major continental European energy markets - German, Dutch and French. We introduce the risk premium in the framework of a standard electricity spot/forward unobserved factor model, and derive the implied forward price behaviour. We then assess the term-structure and time-evolution of the risk premia for each of the markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Ferreira, Paula, Araújo, Madalena, and O’Kelly, M.E.J.
Energy Policy. Mar2007, Vol. 35 Issue 3, p1967-1977. 11p.
Electric industries, Markets, and Electricity
Abstract: The electricity market in Portugal was recently opened up to all consumers. However, it remains highly concentrated in terms of control of production and supply and long-term power purchase arrangements still coexist with free market operation. This paper discusses the electricity market restructuring process in Portugal, presenting the market main characteristics in past years and the present situation. The evolution of the electricity prices in Portugal is analysed, and a comparison with EU-15 is presented. Special attention is given to Spain due to the possibility of cross-border competition in the future, arising from the formation of the Iberian electricity market. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
Markets, Prices, Electric industries, Electricity, and Electric power systems
Achieving higher system reliability using market-based approaches is a contemporary issue that has been attracting a great deal of attention in the emerging deregulated electricity-market structure. The paper presents a methodology for the modelling and evaluation of interruptible-load programmes to tackle this issue. The interruptible-load programme is formulated as an equivalent price-based generating resource with a random outage effect, and is thus incorporated in a probabilistic production simulation of a system. The interdependence between the electricity spot-market price and the equivalent generating-resource parameters is addressed and solved by an iterative co-ordinating algorithm. The proposed approach is capable of achieving comprehensive evaluations and systematic decision making for the interruptible load programme in electricity-market operation. A numerical-case-study example is presented to illustrate the validity of the method. The results reveal that interruptible-load programmes can serve effectively as a market-based tool to achieve a proper balance between generation-capacity reliability and economics in the competitive electricity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Markets, Power resources, Prices, Electric power failures, and Electricity
The importance of the role of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is illustrated by the situation in California. Wholesale electricity prices in California rose sharply in May 2000 and have remained high. California also saw disruptions in service this winter and spring. GAO reviewed FERC's outage study and two other studies that examined possible exercise of market power in California's electricity industry. GAO found that FERC's study was not thorough enough to support its conclusion that audited generators were not physically withholding electricity to influence prices. FERC's study largely focused on determining whether or not the outages were caused by actual physical problems, such as leaks in cooling tubes that required maintenance or repairs. Two other studies GAO examined found evidence that electricity generators exercised market power to boost electricity prices in California. These studies sought broader evidence of the exercise of market power in the entire market by comparing wholesale electricity prices to the estimated costs of producing electricity. In doing so, they found that prices were higher than would be expected if the generators were acting competitively. None of the studies was thorough enough to determine the precise extent to which market power versus other factors has caused high electricity prices in California since May 2000. A thorough study of market power would combine the market-wide approach of the other two studies with a quantification of the extent to which outages, or other supply disruptions, were caused by factors other than generators' attempts to drive up prices. Such factors may include the operating and maintenance history of existing power plants, constraints on the number of hours certain plants can be run, and financial problems of utilities, which led to suspension of payments to some generators. This testimony summarized a June report (GAO-01-857). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Gas industry, Markets, Prices, Supply & demand, Electric utilities, Natural gas, and Electricity
Provides an outlook for taxed natural gas market through 2025. Increase in volatitlity of natural gas prices; Sufficiency of supplies of natural gas domestically and throughout the world to satisfy growing demand for generations to come; Increase in end-use prices; Natural gas consumption and gas-fired electricity generation in the electric power sector from 1995-2025.