Energy Journal. 2020, Vol. 41 Issue 3, p161-181. 21p.
The objective of this paper is to explain the relationship between high frequency electricity demand, intra-day temperature variation and time. Using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM) framework we link high frequency (5-minute) aggregate electricity demand in Australia to the time of the day, time of the year and intra-day temperature. We document a strong relationship between high frequency electricity demand and intra-day temperature. We show a superior model fit when using Daylight Saving Time (DST), or clock time, instead of the standard (solar) time. We introduce the time weighted temperature model that captures instantaneous electricity demand sensitivity to temperature as a function of the human daily activity cycle, by assigning different temperature signal weighting based on the DST time. The results on DST and time weighted temperature modelling are novel in the literature and are important innovations in high frequency electricity demand forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Economic development, Energy consumption, Artificial neural networks, Economic equilibrium, and Electricity
Electricity consumption is vital for the industry, business, and policy matters on macro-level as well as on micro-level in developing countries having inadequate resources. Furthermore, electrical generation is also one of the dominating issues of less developed countries because of limited resources for low-cost electricity production, inefficient distribution, and hindrances to the implementation of policies for long-run objectives. This research uses time series variables of GDP per capita, electricity consumption, and electricity generation as endogenous variables while shortage as an exogenous variable. This study uses the dataset of the annual interval, starting from 1961 to 2015, gathered from reliable sources. Economic growth related to proxies' data has been taken from World Bank Indicators 2015 (WBI) while electrical related variables' data collected from the handouts of Power System Statistics of different years. This study utilizes the Johansen Cointegration (JC) approach to find a long-run relationship along with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methodology to identify equilibrium nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Pakistan. Moreover, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) forecast electricity consumption with a higher degree of accuracy. The JC approach finds the long-run relationship between economic growth, electrical consumption, electrical generation, and electricity shortage. VECM methodology reveals the short-run as well as a long-run nexus among the variables. The deviation from equilibrium swiftly adjusted in this model with no feedback effect of energy consumption-generation. Pairwise Granger Causality method discovers one-way causal relationship running from electricity consumption to economic growth. The findings suggest that electricity consumption and economic growth have a long-run equilibrium relationship, and electricity consumption leads to economic growth in Pakistan. Artificial Neural Networks predict electricity consumption with 99% accuracy, which represents the better-fitted picture of prediction and limited residuals. Furthermore, it also calculates composite coefficient contrast to time series individual coefficient. Policy recommendations of this study are to improve electricity generation through low-cost and environment-friendly options along with discouragement of electricity conservation policy because of a positive and causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Pakistan may enhance economic growth by minimizing line-losses, construction of dams on a priority basis, and by discouraging petroleum-based electricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Nuclear energy, Nuclear fusion, Fusion reactors, and Electricity
The article discusses the Tri Alpha Energy (TAE) Technologies company's efforts to develop nuclear energy through its nuclear fusion reactor, including its chief executive Michl Binderbauer's perspective in this regard. The possibility of using the TAE's nuclear reactor for purposes of electricity is discussed.
Electric utility costs, Government corporations, Consumers, Developing countries, and Electricity
This paper seeks to explain why billions of people in developing countries either have no access to electricity or lack a reliable supply. We present evidence that these shortfalls are a consequence of electricity being treated as a right and that this sets off a vicious four-step circle. In step 1, because a social norm has developed that all deserve power independent of payment, subsidies, theft, and nonpayment are widely tolerated. In step 2, electricity distribution companies lose money with each unit of electricity sold and in total lose large sums of money. In step 3, government-owned distribution companies ration supply to limit losses by restricting access and hours of supply. In step 4, power supply is no longer governed by market forces and the link between payment and supply is severed, thus reducing customers' incentives to pay. The equilibrium outcome is uneven and sporadic access that undermines growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Energy Journal. Jan2020, Vol. 41 Issue 1, p259-287. 29p.
Spot prices, Cost, Marketing theory, Gas power plants, Dynamics, Gas turbines, Coal gasification plants, and Electricity
In theory, well designed electricity markets should deliver an efficient mix of technologies at least-cost. But energy market theories and energy market modelling are based upon equilibrium analysis and in practice electricity markets can be off-equilibrium for extended periods. Near-term spot and forward contract prices can and do fall well below, or substantially exceed, relevant entry cost benchmarks and associated long run equilibrium prices. However, given sufficient time higher prices, on average or during certain periods, create incentives for new entrant plant which in turn has the effect of capping longer-dated average spot price expectations at the estimated cost of the relevant new entrant technologies. In this article, we trace generalised new entrant benchmarks and their relationship to spot price outcomes in Australia's National Electricity Market over the 20-year period to 2018; from coal, to gas and more recently to variable renewables plus firming, notionally provided by--or shadow priced at--the carrying cost of an Open Cycle Gas Turbine. This latest entry benchmark relies implicitly, but critically, on the gains from exchange in organised spot markets, using existing spare capacity. As aging coal plant exit, gains from exchange may gradually diminish with 'notional firming' increasingly and necessarily being met by physical firming. At this point, the benchmark must once again move to a new technology set... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Coglianese, John, Gerarden, Todd D., and Stock, James H.
Energy Journal. Jan2020, Vol. 41 Issue 1, p55-81. 27p.
Environmental regulations, Coal sales & prices, Natural gas sales & prices, Environmental auditing, Coal, and Fuel
We decompose the decline in coal production from 2008 to 2016 into the contributions of several sources. In particular, we estimate the effects of declining natural gas prices and the introduction of new environmental regulations along with several other factors, using both monthly state-level data and annual information on coal plant closings. We estimate that the declining price of natural gas relative to coal is responsible for 92 percent of the total decline in coal production over this period and that environmental regulations account for an additional six percent, with other factors making small and offsetting contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Burger, Scott P., Knittel, Christopher R., Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio J., Schneider, Ian, and Scheidt, Frederik vom
Energy Journal. Jan2020, Vol. 41 Issue 1, p199-239. 41p.
Electricity pricing, Power resources, User charges, Direct costing, Electricity, and Energy storage
Electricity tariffs typically charge residential users a volumetric rate that covers the bulk of energy, transmission, and distribution costs. The resulting prices, charged per unit of electricity consumed, do not reflect marginal costs and vary little across time and space. The emergence of distributed energy resources--such as solar photovoltaics and energy storage--has sparked interest among regulators and utilities in reforming electricity tariffs to enable more efficient utilization of these resources. The economic pressure to redesign electricity rates is countered by concerns of how more efficient rate structures might impact different socioeconomic groups. We analyze the bill impacts of alternative rate plans using interval metering data for more than 100,000 customers in the Chicago, Illinois area. We combine these data with granular Census data to assess the incidence of bill changes across different socioeconomic groups. We find that low-income customers would face bill increases on average in a transition to more economically efficient electricity tariffs. However, we demonstrate that simple changes to fixed charges in two-part tariffs can mitigate these disparities while preserving all, or the vast majority, of the efficiency gains. These designs rely exclusively on observable information and could be replicated by utilities in many geographies across the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Working Papers -- U.S. Federal Reserve Board's Finance & Economic Discussion Series. 2019, Preceding p1-39. 40p.
Electric utility costs, Energy consumption, Electricity, and Evidence
In many settings, misaligned incentives and inadequate monitoring lead employees to take self-interested actions contrary to their employer's wishes, giving rise to the classic principal-agent problem. In this paper, I identify and quantify the costs of misaligned incentives in the context of an energy effciency appliance replacement program. I show that contractors (agents) hired by the electric utility (the principal) increase their compensation by intentionally misreporting program data to deliberately authorize replacement of non-qualified refrigerators. I provide empirical estimates of the impacts of misaligned incentives on (1) the effectiveness of energy efficiency retrofits and (2) welfare. I estimate that unqualified replacements reduce welfare by an average of $106 and save only half as much electricity as replacements that follow program guidelines. The same program without a principal-agent distortion would increase welfare by $60 per replacement. The results provide novel evidence of how principal-agent distortions in the implementation of a potentially benefical program can undermine its value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Bayesian analysis, Government policy, Industrial productivity, and Electricity
Second, aiming to capture the country-specific effects of regulations and overcome bias aggregation problems, this paper applies a Bayesian shrinkage estimator that models country heterogeneity and relaxes the poolability assumptions of slope parameters. Online Supplemental Appendix Figure 1 shows that countries that faced a deep deregulation process had positive country-specific PMR effects that contrast with the negative direction of the pooled-effect (Belgium Italy and Portugal). [Extracted from the article]
The article focuses on the report released by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in cooperation with United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees revealing that on-site renewable energy solutions can cost-effectively supply refugee communities with low-cost and reliable electricity.
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies: The Official Journal of the Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies / The Official Journal of the Asian Association of Environmental and Resource Economics. :1-17