Merrie, Andrew, Keys, Patrick, Metian, Marc, Österblom, Henrik, and Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Social Sciences, Economics and Business, Samhällsvetenskap, Ekonomi och näringsliv, Social and Economic Geography, Social och ekonomisk geografi, Oceans, Fisheries, Global change, Complex adaptive systems, Scenarios, and Science fiction prototyping
Scenarios can help individuals, communities, corporations and nations to develop a capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, or the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures because: 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and: 2) they rarely involve co-evolutionary dynamics of integrated social-ecological systems. This manuscript intends to address these two concerns by applying the method of science fiction prototyping to developing scenarios for the future of global fisheries in a changing global ocean. We used an empirically informed background on existing and emerging trends in marine natural resource use and dynamics to develop four 'radical ocean futures,' incorporating and extrapolating from existing environmental, technological, social and economic trends. We argue that the distinctive method as applied here can complement existing scenario methodologies and assist scientists in developing a holistic understanding of complex systems dynamics. The approach holds promise for making scenarios more accessible and interesting to non-academics and can be useful for developing proactive governance mechanisms.
Ruvald, Ryan, Frank, Martin, Johansson, Christian, Larsson, Tobias, Professor, and Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Fakulteten för teknikvetenskaper, Institutionen för maskinteknik
IFAC PAPERSONLINE. :1095-1100
Engineering and Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Other Mechanical Engineering, Teknik och teknologier, Maskinteknik, Annan maskinteknik, Product Service System, Data Mining, Experience Prototyping, and New Machine Development
The construction industry is ripe for disruption through innovative solutions that provide added productivity. Equipment manufacturers are attempting to disrupt their industry with investments in autonomy, electrification and product-service system business models. Designing solutions that will operate in completely new systems or modify an existing complex system require new approaches to address the uncertainty of system impacts. An iterative approach can help tackle ambiguity through cyclical validation of design decisions. Data mining in each cycle adds a quantitative dimension to the rationale of decision making, but data is sparse and difficult to collect in parallel with design of theoretical product-service systems operating in future scenarios. This can be combated using experiential prototyping techniques to design flexible infrastructure that supports contextualized data gathering in a variety of focused design sprints using Design, Build and Test approach. The intricacy of designing innovative solutions to increase productivity in the construction industry can be untangled by framing aspects of the problem in small sprints and testing them in a contextualized setting built to generate functional data to drive design.