Social Science Quarterly (University of Texas Press). Sep96, Vol. 77 Issue 3, p697-707. 11p.
Multivariate analysis, Regression analysis, United States elections, Women political candidates, American women legislators, Women in politics, and United States legislators
Objective. This article tests the claim that 1992 was the "year of the woman" by examining U.S. House elections between 1972 and 1992. Methods. Multi- variate regression models are tested for women running against male opponents in open seat elections, and for women running against male incumbents. Results. Women who faced male opponents in open seat races received an increase of over 5 percent in their share of the vote by running in 1992. By contrast, females challenging male incumbents did not benefit by running in 1992. This conclusion is supported by opinion poll data suggesting a changed perception in the electorate toward women candidates in 1992. Conclusions. Only in open seat races for the U.S. House of Representatives is there evidence that running in 1992 was beneficial to female candidates. The research implies that nonincumbent female candidates behaved strategically by choosing to run in an election cycle favoring their candidacies. Future research will determine whether female electoral success in 1992 was an isolated event or whether female candidates and activists used their experience in 1992 to expand their political gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Social Science Quarterly (University of Texas Press). Jun98, Vol. 79 Issue 2, p445-455. 11p. 2 Charts.
Regression analysis, United States elections, Elections, and Political campaigns
The article focuses on a study conducted using regression analysis of district-level data from the 1996 open-seat congressional elections to examine the characteristics of open-seat elections and the changes in open-seat elections in the U.S. Open-seat congressional elections are more competitive than elections in which incumbents seek re-election. Open-seat elections arc hence the principal vehicle for membership of the U.S. House of Representatives. Since 1980, about 70 percent of the new members elected to the House have initially won seats in districts where no incumbent was running. Prior to 1994, scholars argued that given the inherent competitiveness of open-seat races, the key to understanding the Republican electoral frustrations in the 1980s was their performance in open-seat contests. The outcomes of the 1996 elections closely followed historical patterns of congressional seat swings the presidential election years. The incumbent president was reelected and his party registered modest gains in the House.
Social Science Quarterly (University of Texas Press). Dec1978, Vol. 59 Issue 3, p535-545. 11p. 2 Charts.
Veterans' benefits, Regression analysis, Veterans -- United States, and School enrollment
This article compares enrollment and benefit levels among all three Government Issue (G. I.) Bill programs in the U.S. as of December 1978. Separate programs covered World War II, Korean War and post-Korean (Vietnam) veterans. By comparing benefits, one can determine whether Congress was as generous with Vietnam veterans as with earlier veterans. By comparing school enrollment rates, one can provide evidence as to whether Vietnam veterans have made as much use of the program as did earlier veterans. The two sections of this paper present data on benefits and enrollments under the G. I. Bill and summarize the controversy that exists between the U.S. Veterans Administration and its critics in interpreting these data. Another objective of this paper is to determine whether veteran enrollments respond positively to increased G. I. Bill benefits. As suggested, some evidence on this question can be derived from comparing enrollment rates among the three G. I. Bill programs. However, many other factors affect the enrollment rates of veterans. Hence, multivariate regression analysis is utilized in order to isolate the impact of benefits upon enrollments. These results are reported in the third section of this paper.
Social Science Quarterly (University of Texas Press). Sep95, Vol. 76 Issue 3, p673-680. 8p. 2 Charts.
Regression analysis, United States Congressional elections, United States political parties, Political science, and Elections
The article examines the 1994 open seat U.S. Congressional elections at the district level to determine how Republican open seat performance improved. It emphasizes on conditions that affect the success of the GOP in open seat elections; negation of the Democratic Party advantage in open seat elections; regression estimates of open seat congressional elections; Influence of redistricting on open seat elections. This study examines the role of open seats in forging the Republican majority in 1994. The 1994 open seat congressional elections are examined at the district level to determine how Republican open seat performance improved, compared to the previous decade, and how GOP improvement related to Republican gains. GOP success in open seats occurred under conditions similar to those indicated by previous research, with one significant exception: the South. This analysis indicates that the Democratic party advantage was negated by a strong backlash vote against professional Democratic politicians in that region, and by changes in district demographics during the previous redistricting. The new Republican majority rested in part on the change in GOP fortunes in open seats, especially in the South.