In the field of science and technology, an open discussion of ignorance as a fundamental cause of environmental destruction has long been avoided. However, this does not mean that ignorance has become obsolete or irrelevant altogether because it has yet been well discussed in the field of philosophy. The different attitudes toward ignorance between the fields of science and philosophy imply that it is a slippery and almost inconceivable object for science, whereas it is something essential to grasp and examine for philosophy. To understand its slippery nature, therefore, we suggest that ignorance is best examined from an epistemological viewpoint, as something that oscillates between reality and nonreality that appears on the surface and then hides underground. In this paper, we explore how ignorance escapes from the scientist’s careful observation and affects the results of actual comprehensive environmental protection measures such as the precautionary principle and risk assessment.
Bishop, Joseph Bucklin, 1847-1928 and Bishop, Joseph Bucklin, 1847-1928
Library of Congress Manuscript Division
Abstract
Joseph Bucklin Bishop writes about uneasiness and uncertainty among Republicans due to what happened at the White House among President Roosevelt, Senator Platt, and Governor Odell. Bishop references a memorandum by Roosevelt.
Joseph Bucklin Bishop writes about uneasiness and uncertainty among Republicans due to what happened at the White House among President Roosevelt, Senator Platt, and Governor Odell. Bishop references a memorandum by Roosevelt.
A sudden change in monetary policy happened in Switzerland on January 15th, 2015. The Swiss National Bank removed a lower exchange rate bound vis-à-vis the Euro. This unexpected change of regime induced a temporary uncertainty about future prices in foreign markets. We believe that this hampers firm investment in the short term. Using this change in monetary policy as a natural experiment and exploiting the continuous nature of a micro-level business tendency survey, we identify the source of uncertainty and disentangle first and second moment effects. We find that price uncertainty affects investment in equipment and machinery through real option effects and believe that growth option effects positively influences expenditures in research and development. We show that focusing on aggregate gross fixed capital formation masks important insights and suggest the use of disaggregated investment data to deepen our knowledge on the relationship between uncertainty and investment.
Numerical results have been obtained for a range of Mach numbers between 1.5 and 4.5, and comparisons made with experimental data. The estimated results are in good agreement with experimental data, but similar studies on other missiles will have to be made before it can be ascertained that the method of analysis is fully reliable. Of the drag components for the bare body, the contribution of the base pressure seems to be subject to the greatest uncertainty. In the case of wind-tunnel tests, the importance of the wave drag increases rapidly with the Mach number and contributes close to one-half of the total drag coefficient at M = 4.5. The behaviour of the base pressure drag is complicated by a strong Reynolds number effect, but its contribution drops rapidly at high Mach numbers. As the Mach number increases, the nature of the boundary layer around the missile changes from turbulent to laminar, with a corresponding drop of the skin friction coefficient, but once the boundary layer has stabilized, the contribution of the skin friction increases with the Mach number. In the case of the finned body, the base pressure drag is again a very important factor, presently intractable analytically, and for which very few experimental data are available. The increase in drag due to the presence of the fins is considerable, varying from 50 to 70 percent of the bare body drag within the Mach number range considered (1.86 to 4.50).
The comb filter designed as an aid in the aural detection of noise tones has pass bands 31 cps apart, extending from 200 to 3500 cps. The width of the bands are adjustable down to 2 cps. The spectrum is aurally monitored for the presence of a tone while the signal is heterodyned with an oscillator whose frequency is varied linearly with time. The comb filter is synthesized using an acoustic delay medium with external electrical feedback. Laboratory listening tests of a 1-kc tone in white noise show an improvement of 7.5 db in signal threshold with the comb filter as compared with naked-ear detection. The system designed to detect the modulation of propeller cavitation noise consists in square-law rectification followed by detection of a resulting tone at the modulation frequency. For a signal 6000 cps wide and 10 seconds long, a 5-db reduction in threshold over naked-ear detection may be attained. Longer observation of the signal will effect additional improvement. The increase in signal threshold due to uncertainty of the signal frequency is evaluated for an ideal detection system. The 50% threshold of detection for a system requiring 30 filters is 3.75 db higher than that for a single-filter system and known signal frequency. With aural detection and a known signal frequency, the 50% threshold was 2.75 db higher. A signal threshold 12 db lower than the aural threshold may be realized with a modified ideal system in detecting a tone in a band of white noise 1200 cps wide with 5 sec of observation time. The use of frequency multiplication followed by analysis with a single scanning filter is discussed.
The method developed by D. H. Baird and G. R. Bird for the measurement of relative absorption intensities with the Stark-modulated microwave spectrograph was extended to the measurement of absolute absorption intensities. The determination of absolute intensity is based on the measurement of the ratio of modulation-frequency component to direct component of crystal current at several microwave power levels and the extrapolation of the ratio to zero power. The method was tested on the line CH3CL35J=O 1, F=3/2 5/2 with measured intensities 15% less than the calculated intensity being obtained over a range of 250% in microwave power. Measurements at very low powers are prevented by the presence of a small amount of pickup in the crystal circuits from the square wave generator. Since other sources of error are present, notably multiple reflections in the absorption cell, the uncertainty of this method cannot be evaluated as well as would be desirable. It is not greater than 25% for medium intensity lines, and this is adequate for the identification of asymmetric rotor lines.
Videofrequency spectra data, from the modulating source as well as the incorporated amplifier, of an electronic countermeasures equipment are often required in determining the equipments' effectiveness. Previous facilities utilized for video analysts were characterized by slow operational point-to-point sampling procedures, and by uncertainty of resolution figure due to possible Q variation of each of the multiple-tune circuits used in the analyzer. After a brief discussion on the merits and limitations of tuned circuit type analyzers as contrasted with superheterodyne types,a quasi-instantaneous video analyzer which was developed principally for the rapid analysis of modulation spectra is described. The instrument presents the frequency analysis of a complex voltage visually, with an alternative provision for instrumental analysis by manual control. it is essentially a double conversion superheterodyne receiver without preselection. A magnetically controlled local oscillator is used as a sweep for visually displaying the complete spectrum from 50 kc to 10 Mc, on a cathode ray tube. in addition, a manually tuned local oscillator is used in conjuction with a thermistor bridge indicator for a point-by-Point analysis. The superhoterodyne principle permits a suitable, constant, and controlled resolution value to be used, and allows a visual analysis to be made in 1/30 second by sweeping the local-oscillator frequency over the desired frequency band at a 30-cps repetition rate. A relation exists between the three factors - the video frequency band to be analyzed, the time required to give a complete analysis, and the final resolution bandwidth of the analyzer. For a video frequency band of 50 kc to 10 Mc, and an analysis time of 1/30 second, the minimum permissible resolution bandwidth is 17.5 kc.. The resolution may be increased by using a smaller video band to be analyzed, or by increasing the time permitted for a complete analysis.
The present report, representing Part 2 of a two part study of search salvage procedures for use with narrow-path locators, is concerned with the accurate location of objects whose apparent presence and approximate position have been previously established by wide-path detectors, by intelligence, or by other means. The locator characteristics are specified by an over-all width of searched path W and a probability beta of detecting on any single locator pass any object which has a random location within W. It is found that the most effective search procedures differ according to whether the navigational errors are substantially smaller than, or are substantially larger than, or are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty in the object position. For each of these three cases practical search procedures are formulated for attaining a searching efficiency close to the theoretical maximum efficiency. Sufficient data are presented for each searching procedure to permit a quick determination of the amount of searching required to obtain sufficient assurance that a contact being investigated does not represent an object if none has been found, and an estimate of the average time required to find an object when one exists. Most of the analysis is concerned with locators that are perfect identifiers, but it is shown how the results can be applied to the location of objects by means of locators with limited classification capabilities. See also part 1, AD881408
Phenomena of thinking, problem-solving, and decision-making are discussed. The discussion implies that men prefer to make decisions under conditions of certainty. When confronted with the necessity to make a decision under conditions of uncertainty they will procrastinate and take many actions in an attempt to achieve certainty before making the decision. These actions are of the nature of thinking and problem solving, requesting additional information, asking the advice of experts, etc., i.e., they attempt to structure the situation to achieve certainty.
The following topics are discussed: (1) Our business behavioral inputs; (2) Government units behavior; (3) Managerial economics and normative economics. Prepared for presentation at the American Economic Association Meeting, St. Louis, Missouri, December 28-30, 1960.
The volume consists of the following sections: Evaluation based on field data; Experimental design; Simulation and training; Maintainability and other factors. See also Volume 1, AD-677 530.
Performance measures from the first major experiment in a series on tactical decision-making for treat evaluation and action selection in aero space surveillance are described. Two groups of experimental commanders performed under several levels of target track load and threat complexity conditions. The task of the commanders was: (1) to minimize damage to the weapon areas, (2) to destroy a maximum number of threatening vehicles, (3) to conserve counter weapons so as to consume a minimum of forces consistent with objectives (1) and (2) above, and (4) to develop his own strategy under constraints imposed by the ground rules. In order to provide some standard performance criteria, a sample of the experimental problems was solved analytically so as to re present both 'good' and 'poor' automated decision making and 'idealized' or maximum human performance. Human empirical scores compared favorably with analytical performance measures. Human empirical performance continuously improved as a function of number of system runs. In cooperation with Detection Physics Lab., Air Force Cambridge Research Labs., Bedford, Mass.
An experiment was performed in which five highly experienced subjects were required to perform threat evaluation and action selection functions under aerospace surveillance loads of from 60 to 96 incoming tracks. The most generally influential condition was task load, increases in which caused increased weapon consumption, and increasing but negatively accelerated rate of kill of threats, increasing and positively accelerating amounts of damage and increased reaction time. The load build-up rate beyond which commanders began to lag behind in the selection of counter actions was found to be of the order of 5-6 tracks per minute. The performance level of the incoming threat did not produce clear-cut evidence of effects upon the commander's success at their tasks. Tracks whose position and identifying descriptive data were 50% - 60% complete and correct were handled in about the same way as tracks represented by perfect information.
An analytical investigation of the application of the Mossbauer Effect to accelerometers is presented. T HE Mossbauer ffect is the emission and absorption of gamma photons without energy losses due to the recoil of the emitting and absorbing nuclei. Resonant absorption so obtained is sensitive to changes in photon energy of one par in 10 to the 12th power - 10 to the 15th power. Fundamental limitations in the application of this phenomenon are the need for statistical counting of photons and the uncertainty in the energy of the nuclear gamma decay. An order of magnitude analysis indica es that the isotope Fe(57), which has favorable characteristics such as a relatively high cross section for resonant absorption and a relatively high ratio of photon energy to uncertainty in photon energy (3 x 10 to the 12th power), is the best available isotope. The Mossbauer Effect is most sensitive to a shift in energy due to relative velocity between the source and absorber, allowing sensing of velocities of 1/100 - 1/100,000 cm/sec. Techniques are presented and nalyzed that use the latter phenomenon to mea ure angular and linear velocity and angular position of instrument components.
The theory, program philosophy, and operating instructions for the Simulation Error Analysis System (COSINE 5B) are presented. As a joint effort undertaken by the RCAF Directorate of Systems Evaluation and the USAF 496L systems Project Office, the computer system, developed at Aeronutronic, provides an automatic means with which the observations of a specified orbit obtained from a sensor network may be simulated and analyzed, yielding the uncertainty in the orbit elements due to the observational inaccuracies. The system also provided the capability of predicting future position and velocity errors caused by the uncertainty in the orbit elements.
バッチプロセスでは，様々な要因により各工程の所要時間が変動する．所要時間の変動によるスケジュールの遅れは生産性の低下や作業ミスの原因となるため，できるだけ早くもとのスケジュールに戻すことが望ましい．本報では実際に遅延が発生したとき，復旧方法をオンラインでガイダンスするシステムを提案する．提案するシステムでは，まず遅延発生時に取り得る対策を戦略として分類し，戦略ごとに各工程の短縮可能時間と短縮に要するコストを定義した．そして，復旧するまでに許されるバッチ数の制約下で復旧に要するコストを評価として所要時間を短縮する工程とその短縮時間を導出する手法を提案した．提案した最適化手法を組み込んだ遅延回復支援システムのプロトタイプシステムを開発し，その有効性についてシミュレーションにて評価した． In a batch process, the processing time changes according to various unforeseen factors. The delay of pre-assigned schedule lowers productivity and acts as a trigger for operational faults. Thus, the delay should be recovered within a reasonable time period. In the proposed system, several delay recovery strategies are defined in advance, and for each strategy the maximum reduction time and its cost are assigned to each processing stage. Then, the problem of finding the revised schedule is formulated as the problem of optimizing the recovery cost under the constraint of the number of batches within which the schedule should be recovered. A progress control support system using the proposed optimization method has been developed. When the delay of the operation occurs, the proposed system graphically indicates the operations where the processing times should be shortened. The effectiveness of the developed system was evaluated by applying the system to several test problems.
Through the use of a simplified random walk model, the document attempts to illustrate the application of statistical analysis to the evaluation of stationary random gyro drift data. (Author)
Computer-based experiments were made to observe and record the verbal behavior of subjects making decisions in quantitative task environments under uncertainty and risk. The second phase of the projects consists of generating a psychological theory of the above behavior, in the form of a computer program. Comparing the trace of the program with tape recorded protocols may indicate the level of completeness of the theory. (Author)
