%{search_type} search results

10 catalog results

RSS feed for this result
Book
1 online resource (20 p.)
The role of inherited wealth in modern economies has increasingly come under scrutiny. This study presents one of the first attempts to shed light on how demographic aging could shape this role. It shows that, in the absence of retirement annuities, or for a given level of annuitization, both increasing longevity and decreasing fertility should reduce the inherited share of total wealth in a given economy. Thus, aging is not likely to explain a recent surge in this share in some advanced economies. Shrinking retirement annuities, however, could offset and potentially reverse these effects. The paper also shows that aging could increase the size of individual bequests vis-a-vis real wages. However, these bequests will be more unequally distributed if aging is driven by a drop in fertility. In comparison, the effect of increasing longevity on their distribution in non-monotonic.
Book
1 online resource (33 p.)
Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift.
Book
xv, 50 p. : ill. ; 26 cm.
Azerbaijan experienced a 'golden age' in the last decade, during which the average growth rate reached record high levels and poverty decreased significantly. On average, the economy grew by 15.3 percent per year in real terms during this period. As a result, poverty declined dramatically from 49.6 percent in 2001 to 15.8 percent in 2008. This study takes an inclusive growth approach to investigating the ways in which the country's high growth was translated into significant poverty reduction. The report first investigates the sources of growth in Azerbaijan with an emphasis on sectoral composition and structural transformation, and then explores how growth helped to reduce poverty. Next, it analyses the sustainability and inclusiveness of the recent growth, and focuses on the structural obstacles that constrain further inclusive growth in Azerbaijan. Finally, it recommends a set of policies to overcome these obstacles. The main findings of this study call for a careful strategy in promoting further inclusive growth in Azerbaijan. Poverty is found to be reduced mainly by oil-financed social transfers and real wage growth, which in turn were made possible by Azerbaijan's sharply increasing oil revenues. However, as the share of hydrocarbon sector grew in the economy, structural transformation towards diversification and balanced growth stalled. Moreover, the sectoral composition of recent growth has not been conducive to employment creation. To further strengthen inclusiveness, therefore, there is a need for diversification and improvement in labour market outcomes. This study also identifies areas where policy adjustments can unleash further inclusive growth in the non-oil economy. These include promotion of a greater economic integration into world markets, introduction of a robust and long-term oriented fiscal rule that limits and smoothes the domestic absorption of oil revenues, removing the skill mismatches and distortionary tax incentives that may create adverse incentives in the labour market, and improving institutional aspects of the business environment. A broad strategy for promoting inclusive growth involves implementing these policies in a systematic fashion.
(source: Nielsen Book Data)9780821397596 20160617
Book
1 online resource (36 p.)
This paper investigates how the devolution of oil windfalls affects the likelihood of political violence. It shows that transferring large shares of oil wealth can prevent conflict, while transferring small shares can trigger it. Among the different transfer schemes, fiscal transfers (to subnational governments) yield the highest levels of consumption, but direct transfers (to people) are the most effective in preventing conflict. By averting conflict, transfers can improve ex ante welfare; however, only a subset of the ex ante welfare optimal transfers is optimal ex post and thus self-enforcing. Among them, those that avert conflict by reinforcing repressive regimes are of particular policy interest.
Book
1 online resource (28 p.)
This paper compares different fiscal integration schemes on the basis of their ability to finance public investments and resilience to debt distress and contagion. Complete integration schemes, where a central authority chooses the level of public investments with productivity-enhancing externalities across different jurisdictions, are shown to be superior to incomplete integration schemes, where member governments choose public investments unilaterally. As a result, equilibrium income is greater for citizens of member states under a complete integration scheme. Moreover, complete integration schemes are shown to be more resilient to idiosyncratic shocks and more effective in limiting contagion of debt distress. This is mainly because the central authority can credibly borrow more without risking default than member states taken together can and it can "transfer resilience" across them if needed. These findings inform discussions on structural aspects of secular stagnation in Europe by emphasizing a potential challenge in the institutional design of fiscal responsibilities.
Book
1 online resource (26 p.)
This study considers the role of demand-driven changes arising from population aging and how they affect the pattern of international trade as well as trade and immigration policy. An aging society can see a welfare-reducing reduction in its share of manufacturing output and this reduction is magnified by a decrease in trade costs (an increase in globalization). Immigration can ameliorate this outcome if it is directed toward younger immigrants. A unilateral tariff increase can also reduce firm delocation from an aging country, however, a reciprocated tariff increase will unambiguously harm the country with the older average population.
Book
1 online resource (39 p.)
This paper develops a multi-sector, small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, which includes the accumulation of human capital, built via public expenditures in education and health. Four possible fiscal rules are examined for total public investment in infrastructure, education, and health in the context of a sustainable resource fund: the spend-as-you-go, bird-in-hand spending; moderate front-loading, and permanent income hypothesis approaches. There are two dimensions to this exercise: the scaling effect, which describes the level of total investment, and the composition effect, which defines the structure of investment between infrastructure, education, and health. The model is applied to Kenya. For impacts on the non-resource economy, efficiency of spending, and sustainability of fiscal outcomes, the analysis finds that, although investment frontloading would bring high growth in the short term, the permanent income hypothesis approach is overall more desirable when fiscal sustainability concerns are taken into consideration. Finally, a balanced composition is the preferred structure of investment, given the permanent income hypothesis allocation of total investment over time.
Book
1 online resource (23 p.)
This paper analyzes the impact of aging on capital accumulation and welfare in a country with a sizable unfunded social security system. Using a two-period overlapping generation model with endogenous retirement decisions, the paper shows that the type of aging and the type of unfunded social security system are important in understanding this impact. The analysis compares two types of demographic changes, declining fertility and increasing longevity; three types of pensions, defined contributions, defined benefits, and defined annuities; as well as mandatory and optimal retirement systems to investigate the differences in implications of aging.
Book
1 online resource (22 p.)
This paper shows how Dutch disease effects may arise solely from a shift in demand following a natural resource discovery. The natural resource wealth increases the demand for non-tradable luxury services due to non-homothetic preferences. Labor that could be used to develop other non-resource tradable sectors is pulled into these service sectors. As a result, manufactures and other tradable goods are more likely to be imported, and learning and productivity improvements accrue to the foreign exporters. However, once the natural resources diminish, there is less income to purchase the services and non-resource tradable goods. Thus, the temporary gain in purchasing power translates into long-term stagnation. As opposed to conventional models where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes, an unequal distribution of the rents from resource wealth further intensifies the Dutch disease dynamics within this framework.
Book
1 online resource (33 p.)
The magnitude and persistence of growth in gross domestic product are topics of intense scrutiny by economists. Although the existing techniques provide a range of tools to study the nature of growth and volatility time series, these usually come with shortcomings, including the need to arbitrarily define acceleration spells, and focus on a particular frequency at a time. This paper explores the application of "wavelet-based" techniques to study the time-varying nature of growth and volatility. These techniques lend themselves to a more robust analysis of short-term and long-term determinants of growth and volatility than the traditional decomposition techniques, as demonstrated on a small sample of countries. In addition to having desirable technical advantages, such as localization in time and frequency and the ability to work with non-stationary series, these techniques also make it possible to accurately decompose the association between growth trajectories of different countries over different time horizons. Such "co-movement" analysis can provide policy makers with important insights on regional integration, growth poles, and how short and long term developments in other countries affect their domestic economy.

Articles+

Journal articles, e-books, & other e-resources
Articles+ results include