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288 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
viii, 110 p. : col. ill., col. map ; 21 cm.
  • Introduction
  • Unpacking 'fragility' : a systems perspective
  • A working list of Africa's 'more fragile' countries for future analysis
  • Forecasting fragility
  • Conclusion
  • Recommendations.
Green Library
23 p. : col. ill. ; 30 cm.
"This paper analyses future trends for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs) model. After reviewing the main post-Cold War patterns of conflict and instability on the continent, the paper discusses seven key correlations associated with intrastate conflict in Africa. It then points to a number of reasons for the changing outlook, including including the continued salience of various 'structural' conditions that drive intrastate violence even during rapid economic growth, recent improvements in human development alongside a strengthened regional and international conflict prevention, conflict resolution and peacebuilding regime. Finally, the paper explores how multipolarity may impact on stability and forecasts trends for intrastate conflict in West, Southern, Horn/East and Central Africa. The authors expect large-scale violence to continue its steady decline, although the risk of instability and violence is likely to persist, and even increase in some instances." -- ISS website.
Green Library
35 p. : col. ill. ; 30 cm.
"This paper presents three scenarios for South Africa up to 2030: 'Bafana Bafana', 'A Nation Divided' and 'Mandela Magic'. The nation's current development pathway, called 'Bafana Bafana' is the well-known story of a perennial underachiever, always playing in the second league when the potential for international championship success and flashes of brilliance are evident for all to see. 'Mandela Magic', on the other hand, is the story of a country with a clear economic and developmental vision, which it pursues across all sectors of society. Competition is stiff and the barriers to success are high. The scenario of 'A Nation Divided' reflects a South Africa that steadily gathers speed downhill as factional politics and policy zigzagging open the door to populist policies. The impact of the policy and leadership choices that South Africans will make in the years ahead, explored in this paper, is significant. The South African economy could grow 23 per cent larger in 'Mandela Magic' compared with its current growth path ('Bafana Bafana'). The paper concludes with seven strategic interventions required to set South Africa on the most prosperous 'Mandela Magic' pathway." -- ISS website.
Green Library
xx, 102 p. : col. ill., col. maps ; 21 cm.
  • Introduction. Perspectives on the future of Africa; The African Futures Project; Content and structure of the report
  • 1. Africa in the world. Economic shift to Asia; African development - like India?; Africa intertwined with Europe
  • Conclusion
  • 2. Human development. African population growth; Human development; Conclusion
  • 3. Economic growth and transformation. African economic growth; Economic transformation: growth and diversity; Economic transformation: critical foundations; Conclusion
  • 4. Sociopolitical change. Democratisation; The rule of law and absence of corruption; Domestic stability and violent conflict; Conclusion
  • 5. Alternative African futures. The challenges of African development; Alternative paths of African development.
Green Library
18 p. : ill., map ; 30 cm.
Africa is characterised by widespread and deeply entrenched poverty, armed conflict, slow economic development until recently, and agricultural systems proven to failure during frequent and persistent drought. With its tremendous natural resources and remarkable social and ecological diversity, the continent reflects a close dependency of people on natural resources. This paper illustrates that it is this dependency that will present Africa with potentially severe adaptive problems in dealing with the twin effects of climate change and population growth in future years. More than ever, Africa and its partners need to work together to turn deforestation around, to save its green lungs, to manage its cities and to grow food for its hungry millions.
Green Library
vii, 150 p. : col. ill., col. maps ; 21 cm.
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Megatrend One. The global shift of power from West to East
  • The (relative) decline of the West
  • The rise of the rest.
  • 3. Megatrend Two. The impact of climate change
  • The limits of growth
  • Impact on Africa
  • Interconnected challenges.
  • 4. Megatrend Three. Globalisation and state power
  • Distributed power
  • A new global power
  • A return of state power?
  • Developed versus developing countries
  • Ideology and Africa
  • Civil society
  • Globalisation and geopolitics.
  • 5. Megatrend Four. Interdependence and complexity
  • African connections
  • Implications for governance
  • A global deficit in management?
  • Towards a global order
  • Global inequality on the decline?
  • A concentration of riches.
  • 6. African variable one. A growing and dynamic population
  • Africa's demographic transition
  • Africa's youth bulge
  • Urbanisation, poverty and insecurity
  • Skills loss.
  • 7. African variable two. Trade, aid and growth
  • Commodities-based economic growth
  • Oil, energy and growth
  • Aid.
  • 8. African variable three. Democratisation and governance
  • Progress over several decades
  • Democratisation for Africans?
  • Corruption.
  • 9. African variable four. Peace and stability
  • Impact of democracy and external peacemaking
  • African leadership
  • Alarmism and despondency
  • Policing Africa
  • Global insecurity on the rise?
  • 10. The importance of regional integration for African development.
  • Political solidarity versus economic reality
  • North Africa and the Horn
  • A sub-regional imperative.
  • 11. Conclusion.
  • Bad news sells
  • Key global trends
  • China and Africa
  • India and the vision of a developmental state
  • Global threats to prosperity
  • Implications for Africa
  • The US and the UN
  • Finally.
Green Library
24 p. : chart, map ; 30 cm.
  • Introduction
  • The ASF concept
  • Mandates: the UN and the AU
  • Command and control
  • Rapid deployment concept
  • Funding and funders
  • Progress at regional level
  • Conclusion.
Green Library
24 p. ; 30 cm.
  • Introduction
  • The Continental Policy Framework for the African Standby Force (ASF)
  • Key planning assumptions
  • Planning elements and brigade headquarters
  • Logistics
  • Training and doctrine
  • Funding
  • Collaboration and cooperation
  • ECOWAS in West Africa
  • ECOWAS Standby Froce (ESF)
  • Next steps in West Africa
  • EASBRIG and IGAD in East Africa
  • The SADC Standby Force Brigade (SADCBRIG)
  • Other regions
  • Conclusion.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
28 p. ; 30 cm.
  • Differences between early warning and intelligence systems
  • Early warning, governance and conflict prevention
  • OAU and early warning
  • PSC Protocol and early warning
  • Towards a CEWS
  • Developments at the regional level
  • ECOWAS Peace and Security Observation System
  • Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism in the Horn of Africa (CEWARN)
  • Early Warning Observation and Monitoring System for Central Africa (MARAC)
  • Southern Africa
  • Conclusion.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
19 p. ; 30 cm.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
19 p. ; 30 cm.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
19 p.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
11 p. ; 30 cm.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
20 p.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
16 p. ; 31 cm.
Green Library
17 p. ; 30 cm.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
9 p.
SAL3 (off-campus storage)
129 p. : ill. ; 21 cm.
SAL1&2 (on-campus shelving)
103 p. : ill. ; 21 cm.
Green Library


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