[Carlisle, Pa : Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2008]
Book — viii, 81 p. : digital, PDF file.
Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential spillover from the Iraq war. Regional spillover problems associated with the Iraq war need to be considered and addressed even in the event of strong future success in building the new Iraq. In less optimistic scenarios, these issues will become even more important. Spillover issues addressed herein include: (1) the flow of refugees and displaced persons from Iraq, (2) cross-border terrorism, (3) the potential intensification of separatism and sectarian discord among Iraq's neighbors, and (4) transnational crime. All of these problems will be exceptionally important in the Middle East in the coming years and perhaps decades, and trends involving these issues will need to be closely monitored.
Since the end of the Cold War, European security concerns have focused increasingly on the potential for instability on Europe's southern flank. In 1995, the European Union developed a framework for cooperation with the southern Mediterranean nations. These efforts have included some relatively ineffective programs to promote democracy in the region. In the aftermath of 9/11, the goal of encouraging the development of Middle East democracy has acquired greater urgency, not least in the eyes of the United States, which has bolstered its own efforts to spur democratic reform.