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Decision of Optimal Structural Safety

Kulkarni, RB (Author)
Date created:
Type of resource:
Technical report
If the strength of a structure, built as designed, could be predicted with precision, and if the loads and their internal effects (moments, shears, axial forces, etc.) were known with equal precision, then safety could be assured by providing a carrying capacity just barely in excess of the known loads.  Unfortunately future loads as well as future structural performance cannot be predicted with certainty; yet the decisions of structural design must be made now. What rationale can one follow to assure himself that the decisions he is taking today are really most consistent with his experience, judgement, and scale of preferences?  A Bayesian approach provides this rationale for making decisions under uncertainties.   That level of structural safety should be considered to be necessary and sufficient at which the expected utilities are maximized. Expressing investments and failure losses in monetary terms, the criterion of maximizing expected utilities is reduced to that of minimizing total generalized costs.
Preferred Citation:
Kulkarni, RB. (1975). Decision of Optimal Structural Safety. John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center Technical Report 19. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at: http://purl.stanford.edu/qv334fm8601
John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center Technical Report Series
Related item:
John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center
structural analysis
risk assessment
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