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Book
11 p. ; 21x28 cm.
The peer review process can lead to changes in the interpretation of the slides and the reported results, and potentially the outcome and conclusions of the study. The purpose of this document is to provide guidance to pathologists, test facility management, study directors and quality assurance personnel on how the peer review of histopathology should be planned, managed, documented and reported in order to meet GLP expectations and requirements. This document is a complement to the guidance provided in section 3.6.3.7 of OECD Guidance Document 116 (series on testing and assessment), whose focus is on how histopathology peer review should be conducted.
The peer review process can lead to changes in the interpretation of the slides and the reported results, and potentially the outcome and conclusions of the study. The purpose of this document is to provide guidance to pathologists, test facility management, study directors and quality assurance personnel on how the peer review of histopathology should be planned, managed, documented and reported in order to meet GLP expectations and requirements. This document is a complement to the guidance provided in section 3.6.3.7 of OECD Guidance Document 116 (series on testing and assessment), whose focus is on how histopathology peer review should be conducted.
Book
4 p.
This document is a statement of policy set by the 1989 Council Decision-Recommendation on Compliance with Good Laboratory Practice [C(89)87(Final). It reiterates the decisions and the recommendations related to the role and responsibilities of governments, national GLP compliance monitoring authorities and inspectors set out in that Act and its Annexes and states current practices. The Working Group on GLP is of the opinion that, while the Council Act allows "outsourcing" of inspection functions, this should be the exception rather than the rule and should be used only as an interim solution and primarily by new GLP compliance monitoring programmes.  
This document is a statement of policy set by the 1989 Council Decision-Recommendation on Compliance with Good Laboratory Practice [C(89)87(Final). It reiterates the decisions and the recommendations related to the role and responsibilities of governments, national GLP compliance monitoring authorities and inspectors set out in that Act and its Annexes and states current practices. The Working Group on GLP is of the opinion that, while the Council Act allows "outsourcing" of inspection functions, this should be the exception rather than the rule and should be used only as an interim solution and primarily by new GLP compliance monitoring programmes.  
Book
1 online resource (44 p.)
This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration. The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced moisture tends to reduce local urban incomes. Finally, the paper shows that climate induces employment changes within the rural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out of farm activities, especially for women, into non-farm activities, and especially out of the workforce. Overall, these findings imply a strong link between climate and urbanization in Africa.
This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration. The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced moisture tends to reduce local urban incomes. Finally, the paper shows that climate induces employment changes within the rural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out of farm activities, especially for women, into non-farm activities, and especially out of the workforce. Overall, these findings imply a strong link between climate and urbanization in Africa.
Book
168 p.
  • Explanatory Notes 6 -Purpose and background�6 -How to use this document 6 -Coverage and methodology 7 -How this document was developed 10 1. Industry Summary and Background16 -1.1 Introduction to Adhesives 16 -1.2 Industry Sector Description 17 -1.3 Market Profile and Adhesive Production 21 -1.4 Adhesive Application 23 2. Process Description�24 -2.1 Sealed Mixing/Transfer 24 -2.2 Unsealed Mixing/Transfer�27 -2.3 Heated Mixing/Transfer 29 -2.4 Adhesive Formulations 31 -2.5 Physical Properties of Adhesive Chemicals 34 3. Overall Approach and General Facility Estimates�40 -3.1 Introduction to the General Facility Estimates 40 -3.2 Annual Facility Adhesive Production Rate (Qadhes_site_yr) 41 -3.3 Mass Fraction of the Chemical of Interest in the Adhesive Component �(Fchem_comp) 48 -3.4 Mass Fraction of the Component in the Adhesive Product (Fcomp_adhes) 48 -3.5 Number of Sites (Nsites) 53 -3.6 Annual Number of Batches (Nbt_site_yr) 54 -3.7 Days of Operation (TIMEworking_days)� 55 -3.8 Daily Use Rate of the Chemical of Interest (Qchem_site_day) 56 -3.9 Annual Number of Adhesive Component Containers Emptied per Facility (Ncont_empty_site_yr)�57 -3.10 Annual Number of Adhesive Product Containers Filled per Facility �(Ncont_fill_site_yr) 58� 4. Environmental Release Assessments 60 -4.1 Control Technologies 62 -4.2 Adhesive Component Container Residue Released to Water, Incineration, �or Landfill (Release 1)�62 -4.3 Open Surface Losses to Air During Container Cleaning (Release 2)�64 -4.4 Transfer Operation Losses to Air from Unloading the Adhesive Component �(Release 3) 65 -4.5 Dust Generation from Transfer Operations Released to Air, or Collected �and Released to Water, Incineration, or Landfill (Release 4)�66 -4.6 Vented Losses to Air During Process Operations (Release 5) 68 -4.7 Adhesive Product Sampling Wastes Disposed to Water, Incineration, or �Landfill (Release 6) 70 -4.8 Open Surface Losses to Air During Product Sampling (Release 7) 70 -4.9 Equipment Cleaning Releases to Water, Incineration or Landfill (Release 8) 72 -4.10 Open Surface Losses to Air During Equipment Cleaning (Release 9) 73 -4.11 Transfer Operation Losses to Air from Loading Adhesive Product into �Transport Containers (Release 10) 74 -4.12 Off-Spec Product Released to Water, Incineration or Landfill (Release 11) 76 5. Occupational Exposure Assessments 77 -5.1 Personal Protective Equipment 79 -5.2 Number of Workers Exposed Per Site 79 -5.3 Exposure from Unloading Solid or Liquid Chemicals (Exposure A) 80 -5.4 Exposure to Solids or Liquids During Container Cleaning (Exposure B) 84 -5.5 Inhalation Exposure During Operation of Open Mixing Vessels (Exposure C) 88 -5.6 Exposure from Sampling Liquid Adhesive Product (Exposure D)�89 -5.7 Exposure to Liquids During the Equipment Cleaning of Mixers and Other �Process Equipment (Exposure E)�91 -5.8 Exposure from Packaging Adhesive Product (Exposure F)�93 6. Sample Calculations 96 -6.1 General Facility Estimates 96 -6.2 Release Assessments 99� -6.3 Occupational Exposure Assessments 107 7. Data Gaps / Uncertainties and Future Work�115 8 References 118 Appendix A. Estimation Equation Summary and Default Parameter Values 123 Appendix B. Background Information and Equations / Defaults for the Standard EPS Environemntal Release and Worker Exposure Models 131 Appendix C. Data Received from Environment Canada 165  
This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD)  provides information on the sources, use patterns, and potential release pathways of chemicals used in the adhesive formulation industry. The document presents standard approaches for estimating the environmental releases of and occupational exposures to additives and components used in adhesive formulations. These approaches are intended to provide conservative, screening-level estimates resulting in release and exposure amounts that are likely to be higher, or at least higher than average, than amounts that might actually occur in the real world setting.  
  • Explanatory Notes 6 -Purpose and background�6 -How to use this document 6 -Coverage and methodology 7 -How this document was developed 10 1. Industry Summary and Background16 -1.1 Introduction to Adhesives 16 -1.2 Industry Sector Description 17 -1.3 Market Profile and Adhesive Production 21 -1.4 Adhesive Application 23 2. Process Description�24 -2.1 Sealed Mixing/Transfer 24 -2.2 Unsealed Mixing/Transfer�27 -2.3 Heated Mixing/Transfer 29 -2.4 Adhesive Formulations 31 -2.5 Physical Properties of Adhesive Chemicals 34 3. Overall Approach and General Facility Estimates�40 -3.1 Introduction to the General Facility Estimates 40 -3.2 Annual Facility Adhesive Production Rate (Qadhes_site_yr) 41 -3.3 Mass Fraction of the Chemical of Interest in the Adhesive Component �(Fchem_comp) 48 -3.4 Mass Fraction of the Component in the Adhesive Product (Fcomp_adhes) 48 -3.5 Number of Sites (Nsites) 53 -3.6 Annual Number of Batches (Nbt_site_yr) 54 -3.7 Days of Operation (TIMEworking_days)� 55 -3.8 Daily Use Rate of the Chemical of Interest (Qchem_site_day) 56 -3.9 Annual Number of Adhesive Component Containers Emptied per Facility (Ncont_empty_site_yr)�57 -3.10 Annual Number of Adhesive Product Containers Filled per Facility �(Ncont_fill_site_yr) 58� 4. Environmental Release Assessments 60 -4.1 Control Technologies 62 -4.2 Adhesive Component Container Residue Released to Water, Incineration, �or Landfill (Release 1)�62 -4.3 Open Surface Losses to Air During Container Cleaning (Release 2)�64 -4.4 Transfer Operation Losses to Air from Unloading the Adhesive Component �(Release 3) 65 -4.5 Dust Generation from Transfer Operations Released to Air, or Collected �and Released to Water, Incineration, or Landfill (Release 4)�66 -4.6 Vented Losses to Air During Process Operations (Release 5) 68 -4.7 Adhesive Product Sampling Wastes Disposed to Water, Incineration, or �Landfill (Release 6) 70 -4.8 Open Surface Losses to Air During Product Sampling (Release 7) 70 -4.9 Equipment Cleaning Releases to Water, Incineration or Landfill (Release 8) 72 -4.10 Open Surface Losses to Air During Equipment Cleaning (Release 9) 73 -4.11 Transfer Operation Losses to Air from Loading Adhesive Product into �Transport Containers (Release 10) 74 -4.12 Off-Spec Product Released to Water, Incineration or Landfill (Release 11) 76 5. Occupational Exposure Assessments 77 -5.1 Personal Protective Equipment 79 -5.2 Number of Workers Exposed Per Site 79 -5.3 Exposure from Unloading Solid or Liquid Chemicals (Exposure A) 80 -5.4 Exposure to Solids or Liquids During Container Cleaning (Exposure B) 84 -5.5 Inhalation Exposure During Operation of Open Mixing Vessels (Exposure C) 88 -5.6 Exposure from Sampling Liquid Adhesive Product (Exposure D)�89 -5.7 Exposure to Liquids During the Equipment Cleaning of Mixers and Other �Process Equipment (Exposure E)�91 -5.8 Exposure from Packaging Adhesive Product (Exposure F)�93 6. Sample Calculations 96 -6.1 General Facility Estimates 96 -6.2 Release Assessments 99� -6.3 Occupational Exposure Assessments 107 7. Data Gaps / Uncertainties and Future Work�115 8 References 118 Appendix A. Estimation Equation Summary and Default Parameter Values 123 Appendix B. Background Information and Equations / Defaults for the Standard EPS Environemntal Release and Worker Exposure Models 131 Appendix C. Data Received from Environment Canada 165  
This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD)  provides information on the sources, use patterns, and potential release pathways of chemicals used in the adhesive formulation industry. The document presents standard approaches for estimating the environmental releases of and occupational exposures to additives and components used in adhesive formulations. These approaches are intended to provide conservative, screening-level estimates resulting in release and exposure amounts that are likely to be higher, or at least higher than average, than amounts that might actually occur in the real world setting.  
Book
28 p. ; 21 x 29.7 cm.
Multifactor productivity (MFP) is increasingly used in economic policy, not least to compute potential output. Most measures are based on a standard production function combining labour and capital, but do not incorporate the negative by-products of the production process such as air pollution that could have deleterious effect on health and productivity in the medium to long term (see for instance OECD (2014)). The failure to account for the costs of environmental damages and the benefits associated with emission reduction impart a bias to standard measures of MFP. Ignoring these dimensions can give a misleading idea of growth prospects over the medium to long term...
Multifactor productivity (MFP) is increasingly used in economic policy, not least to compute potential output. Most measures are based on a standard production function combining labour and capital, but do not incorporate the negative by-products of the production process such as air pollution that could have deleterious effect on health and productivity in the medium to long term (see for instance OECD (2014)). The failure to account for the costs of environmental damages and the benefits associated with emission reduction impart a bias to standard measures of MFP. Ignoring these dimensions can give a misleading idea of growth prospects over the medium to long term...
Book
105 p.
This document describes the state of knowledge of the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) for skin sensitisation initiated by covalent binding to proteins, assesses the weight-of-evidence supporting the AOP, identifies the key events, and identifies databases containing test results related to those key events. AOPs can be incorporated into chemical categories-based assessments or integrated approaches for testing and assessment.  
This document describes the state of knowledge of the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) for skin sensitisation initiated by covalent binding to proteins, assesses the weight-of-evidence supporting the AOP, identifies the key events, and identifies databases containing test results related to those key events. AOPs can be incorporated into chemical categories-based assessments or integrated approaches for testing and assessment.  
Book
1 online resource (37 p.)
Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. While decision makers can continue to use the decision metrics they have used in the past (such as net present value), alternative methodologies can improve decision processes, especially those that lead with analysis and end in agreement on decisions. Such "Agree-on-Decision" methods start by stress-testing options under a wide range of plausible conditions, without requiring us to agree ex ante on which conditions are more or less likely, and against a set of objectives or success metrics, without requiring us to agree ex ante on how to aggregate or weight them. As a result, these methods are easier to apply to contexts of large uncertainty or disagreement on values and objectives. This inverted process promotes consensus around better decisions and can help in managing uncertainty. Analyses performed in this way let decision makers make the decision and inform them on (1) the conditions under which an option or project is vulnerable; (2) the tradeoffs between robustness and cost, or between various objectives; and (3) the flexibility of various options to respond to changes in the future. In doing so, they put decision makers back in the driver's seat. A growing set of case studies shows that these methods can be applied in real-world contexts and do not need to be more costly or complicated than traditional approaches. Finally, while this paper focuses on climate change, a better treatment of uncertainties and disagreement would in general improve decision making and development outcomes.
Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. While decision makers can continue to use the decision metrics they have used in the past (such as net present value), alternative methodologies can improve decision processes, especially those that lead with analysis and end in agreement on decisions. Such "Agree-on-Decision" methods start by stress-testing options under a wide range of plausible conditions, without requiring us to agree ex ante on which conditions are more or less likely, and against a set of objectives or success metrics, without requiring us to agree ex ante on how to aggregate or weight them. As a result, these methods are easier to apply to contexts of large uncertainty or disagreement on values and objectives. This inverted process promotes consensus around better decisions and can help in managing uncertainty. Analyses performed in this way let decision makers make the decision and inform them on (1) the conditions under which an option or project is vulnerable; (2) the tradeoffs between robustness and cost, or between various objectives; and (3) the flexibility of various options to respond to changes in the future. In doing so, they put decision makers back in the driver's seat. A growing set of case studies shows that these methods can be applied in real-world contexts and do not need to be more costly or complicated than traditional approaches. Finally, while this paper focuses on climate change, a better treatment of uncertainties and disagreement would in general improve decision making and development outcomes.
Book
59 p.
  • 1. Industry Summary and Background 9 2. Process Description 10 -2.1 Surface Preparation 12 -2.2 Solvent Wipe Down 12 -2.3 Paint Mixing 12 -2.4 Coating Application via Spray Painting�13 -2.5 Curing [This section is included for background information only] 15 3. Screening Level Estimation Techniques/Methods 16 -3.1 General Facility Estimates 16 -3.2 Release Assessments 19 -3.3 Occupational Exposure Assessments 24 4. Summary of Equations and Sample Calculations 28 -4.1 Summary of Release and Exposure Equations 28 -4.2 Individual Chemical Release and Exposure Examples 32 5. Data Gaps / Uncertainties and Future Work 36 6. References 37� Appendix A. German Data for� Automotive Coating�� Appendix B. Inhalation Exposure to Polysocyanate in Paint Appendix C. Paint Mist Concentration Data�� Appendix D. Dermal Exposure Assessment Factors
This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD) is intended to provide information on the sources, use patterns and release pathways of chemicals used in automotive refinishing industry. The information can be used to estimate releases of chemicals to the environment.  
  • 1. Industry Summary and Background 9 2. Process Description 10 -2.1 Surface Preparation 12 -2.2 Solvent Wipe Down 12 -2.3 Paint Mixing 12 -2.4 Coating Application via Spray Painting�13 -2.5 Curing [This section is included for background information only] 15 3. Screening Level Estimation Techniques/Methods 16 -3.1 General Facility Estimates 16 -3.2 Release Assessments 19 -3.3 Occupational Exposure Assessments 24 4. Summary of Equations and Sample Calculations 28 -4.1 Summary of Release and Exposure Equations 28 -4.2 Individual Chemical Release and Exposure Examples 32 5. Data Gaps / Uncertainties and Future Work 36 6. References 37� Appendix A. German Data for� Automotive Coating�� Appendix B. Inhalation Exposure to Polysocyanate in Paint Appendix C. Paint Mist Concentration Data�� Appendix D. Dermal Exposure Assessment Factors
This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD) is intended to provide information on the sources, use patterns and release pathways of chemicals used in automotive refinishing industry. The information can be used to estimate releases of chemicals to the environment.  
Book
1 online resource (51 p.)
China's national leaders have recently made a priority of changing lanes from a pollution-intensive, growth-at-any-cost model to a resource-efficient and sustainable one. The immense challenges of rapid urbanization are one aspect of the problem. Central-local government relations are another source of challenges, since the central government's green agenda does not always find willing followers at lower levels. This paper identifies barriers to a more comprehensive implementation of environmental policies at the local level in China's urban areas and suggests ways to reduce or remove them. The research focuses particularly on the reasons for the gap between national plans and policy outcomes. Although environmental goals and policies at the national level are quite ambitious and comprehensive, insufficient and inconsistent local level implementation can hold back significant improvements in urban environmental quality. By analyzing local institutional and behavioral obstacles and by highlighting best-practice examples from China and elsewhere, the paper outlines options that can be used at the national and local levels to close the local "environmental implementation gap." The findings emphasize the need to create additional incentives and increase local implementation capacities.
China's national leaders have recently made a priority of changing lanes from a pollution-intensive, growth-at-any-cost model to a resource-efficient and sustainable one. The immense challenges of rapid urbanization are one aspect of the problem. Central-local government relations are another source of challenges, since the central government's green agenda does not always find willing followers at lower levels. This paper identifies barriers to a more comprehensive implementation of environmental policies at the local level in China's urban areas and suggests ways to reduce or remove them. The research focuses particularly on the reasons for the gap between national plans and policy outcomes. Although environmental goals and policies at the national level are quite ambitious and comprehensive, insufficient and inconsistent local level implementation can hold back significant improvements in urban environmental quality. By analyzing local institutional and behavioral obstacles and by highlighting best-practice examples from China and elsewhere, the paper outlines options that can be used at the national and local levels to close the local "environmental implementation gap." The findings emphasize the need to create additional incentives and increase local implementation capacities.
Book
96 p. ; 21 x 29.7 cm.
As OECD countries emerge from the global financial crisis, several countries have published their plans for the development of a future bioeconomy, an economy in which bio-based materials and production techniques will contribute significantly to economic and environmental sustainability. Such plans typically involve building a bio-based production industry in which fuels, energy and materials such as chemicals and plastics, almost always generated from fossil resources such as oil and natural gas, are incrementally replaced by equivalent or novel products generated from renewable resources. The realisation of this vision will require sustainably harnessing the vast biomass resource. The highest policy priorities at present are on several levels: allowing bio-based materials to compete for biomass on price with bioelectricity and biofuels; rectifying the highly distorting fossil fuel subsidies, heading off future competition for crude oil demand; and correcting for any excessive regulatory impacts. If governments wish to realise a successful bioeconomy in the future, the case for support for bio-based chemicals and plastics warrants serious attention.
As OECD countries emerge from the global financial crisis, several countries have published their plans for the development of a future bioeconomy, an economy in which bio-based materials and production techniques will contribute significantly to economic and environmental sustainability. Such plans typically involve building a bio-based production industry in which fuels, energy and materials such as chemicals and plastics, almost always generated from fossil resources such as oil and natural gas, are incrementally replaced by equivalent or novel products generated from renewable resources. The realisation of this vision will require sustainably harnessing the vast biomass resource. The highest policy priorities at present are on several levels: allowing bio-based materials to compete for biomass on price with bioelectricity and biofuels; rectifying the highly distorting fossil fuel subsidies, heading off future competition for crude oil demand; and correcting for any excessive regulatory impacts. If governments wish to realise a successful bioeconomy in the future, the case for support for bio-based chemicals and plastics warrants serious attention.
Book
127 p.
  • 1. Industry Summary and Background 11 -1.1 Aroma Chemical Manufacturing 11 -1.2 Fragrance Oil Formulation 12 -1.3 Formulation of Commercial and Consumer Products 13 2. Process Description 16 -2.1 Production of Commercial and Consumer Products Using Functional Fragrance Oils 16 -2.2 Production of Consumer Products Using Fine Fragrance Oils� 18 -2.3 Physical Properties of Aroma Chemicals 19 3. Generl Facility Estimates 21 -3.1 Introduction to the General Facility Estimates 21 -3.2 Days of Operation (TIMEworking_days)�22 -3.3 Concentration of the Aroma Chemical (Fchem_final)� 22 -3.4 Daily Use Rate of Aroma Chemical (Qchem_site_day) 23 -3.5 Number of Sites (Nsites) 25 -3.6 Number of Transport Containers Unloaded per Site (Ncontainer_unload_site_yr) 26 -3.7 Number of Transport Containers Filled per Site (Ncontainer_load_site_yr)� 27 4. Environmental Release Assessments 29 -4.1 Control Technologies 30 -4.2 Adjusted Vapor Pressure 30 -4.3 Release to Water, Incineration, or Land from Container Residue (Release 1)�31 -4.4 Fugitive Air Releases During Transport Container Cleaning (Release 2) 33 -4.5 Fugitive Air Releases from Unloading Transport Containers (Release 3) 34 -4.6 Fugitive Air Releases During Mixing Operations (Release 4)�35 -4.7 Product Sampling Wastes Disposed to Water, Incineration, or Landfill (Release 5) 36 -4.8 Open Surface Losses to Air During Product Sampling (Release 6)�36 -4.9 Release to Water, Incineration, or Landfill from Equipment Cleaning (Release 7) 37 -4.10 Fugitive Air Releases During Equipment Cleaning (Release 8)�38 -4.11 Fugitive Air Releases During Product Packaging (Release 9)�39 -4.12 Release to Water, Incineration, Land, or Air from Dust Waste Generated from Conveying, Mixing, and Packaging Powdered Commercial and Consumer Products (Release 10)� 40 5. Occupational Exposure Assessments 42 -5.1 Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) 43 -5.2 Number of Workers Exposed Per Site�43 -5.3 Exposure from Unloading Transport Containers into Mixing Vessel (Exposure A)� 44 -5.4 Exposure During Transport Container Cleaning (Exposure B) 46 -5.5 Exposure from Sampling Product Formulation (Exposure C) 48 -5.6 Exposure During Equipment Cleaning (Exposure D)� 49� -5.7 Exposure from Packaging of Commercial and Consumer Products (Exposure E) 51 6. Sample Calculations 56 -6.1 General Facility Estimates (TIMEworking_days) 56 -6.2 Release Assessments 59 -6.3 Occupational Exposure Assessments� 67 7. Data Gaps / Uncertainties and Future� Work 76 8. References 78 Appendix A. Estimation Equation Summary and Default Value Documentation 82 Appendix B. Background Information and Equations� / Defaults for the Standard EPA Environmental Release and Worker Exposure Models� 90 Appendix C. Data Received from Environment Canada 123 Appendix D. Data Received from Research Institute for Fragrance Materials� 125  
The scope of this Emissions Scenario Document includes the blending of fine and functional fragrance oils into consumer and commercial products. The manufacture of aroma chemicals and the formulation of fragrance oil are outside the scope of this scenario. However, these industrial operations are discussed in this section as an introduction to the fragrance industry as a whole. The following life-cycle diagram demonstrates the applicability of this scenario.  
  • 1. Industry Summary and Background 11 -1.1 Aroma Chemical Manufacturing 11 -1.2 Fragrance Oil Formulation 12 -1.3 Formulation of Commercial and Consumer Products 13 2. Process Description 16 -2.1 Production of Commercial and Consumer Products Using Functional Fragrance Oils 16 -2.2 Production of Consumer Products Using Fine Fragrance Oils� 18 -2.3 Physical Properties of Aroma Chemicals 19 3. Generl Facility Estimates 21 -3.1 Introduction to the General Facility Estimates 21 -3.2 Days of Operation (TIMEworking_days)�22 -3.3 Concentration of the Aroma Chemical (Fchem_final)� 22 -3.4 Daily Use Rate of Aroma Chemical (Qchem_site_day) 23 -3.5 Number of Sites (Nsites) 25 -3.6 Number of Transport Containers Unloaded per Site (Ncontainer_unload_site_yr) 26 -3.7 Number of Transport Containers Filled per Site (Ncontainer_load_site_yr)� 27 4. Environmental Release Assessments 29 -4.1 Control Technologies 30 -4.2 Adjusted Vapor Pressure 30 -4.3 Release to Water, Incineration, or Land from Container Residue (Release 1)�31 -4.4 Fugitive Air Releases During Transport Container Cleaning (Release 2) 33 -4.5 Fugitive Air Releases from Unloading Transport Containers (Release 3) 34 -4.6 Fugitive Air Releases During Mixing Operations (Release 4)�35 -4.7 Product Sampling Wastes Disposed to Water, Incineration, or Landfill (Release 5) 36 -4.8 Open Surface Losses to Air During Product Sampling (Release 6)�36 -4.9 Release to Water, Incineration, or Landfill from Equipment Cleaning (Release 7) 37 -4.10 Fugitive Air Releases During Equipment Cleaning (Release 8)�38 -4.11 Fugitive Air Releases During Product Packaging (Release 9)�39 -4.12 Release to Water, Incineration, Land, or Air from Dust Waste Generated from Conveying, Mixing, and Packaging Powdered Commercial and Consumer Products (Release 10)� 40 5. Occupational Exposure Assessments 42 -5.1 Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) 43 -5.2 Number of Workers Exposed Per Site�43 -5.3 Exposure from Unloading Transport Containers into Mixing Vessel (Exposure A)� 44 -5.4 Exposure During Transport Container Cleaning (Exposure B) 46 -5.5 Exposure from Sampling Product Formulation (Exposure C) 48 -5.6 Exposure During Equipment Cleaning (Exposure D)� 49� -5.7 Exposure from Packaging of Commercial and Consumer Products (Exposure E) 51 6. Sample Calculations 56 -6.1 General Facility Estimates (TIMEworking_days) 56 -6.2 Release Assessments 59 -6.3 Occupational Exposure Assessments� 67 7. Data Gaps / Uncertainties and Future� Work 76 8. References 78 Appendix A. Estimation Equation Summary and Default Value Documentation 82 Appendix B. Background Information and Equations� / Defaults for the Standard EPA Environmental Release and Worker Exposure Models� 90 Appendix C. Data Received from Environment Canada 123 Appendix D. Data Received from Research Institute for Fragrance Materials� 125  
The scope of this Emissions Scenario Document includes the blending of fine and functional fragrance oils into consumer and commercial products. The manufacture of aroma chemicals and the formulation of fragrance oil are outside the scope of this scenario. However, these industrial operations are discussed in this section as an introduction to the fragrance industry as a whole. The following life-cycle diagram demonstrates the applicability of this scenario.  
Book
1 online resource (26 p.)
This paper investigates the effect of carbon or gasoline taxes on commuting-related CO2 emissions in an urban context. To assess the impact of public transport on the efficiency of the tax, the paper investigates two exogenous scenarios using a dynamic urban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area of Paris: (i) a scenario with the current dense public transport infrastructure, and (ii) a scenario without. It is shown that the price elasticity of CO2 emissions is twice as high in the short run if public transport options exist. Reducing commuting-related emissions thus requires lower (and more acceptable) tax levels in the presence of dense public transportation. If the goal of a carbon or gasoline tax is to change behaviors and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions (not to raise revenues), then there is an incentive to increase the price elasticity through complementary policies such as public transport development. The emission elasticity also depends on the baseline scenario and is larger when population growth and income growth are high. In the longer run, elasticities are higher and similar in the scenarios with and without public transport, because of larger urban reconfiguration in the latter scenario. These results are policy relevant, especially for fast-growing cities in developing countries. Even for cities where emission reductions are not a priority today, there is an option value attached to a dense public transport network, since it makes it possible to reduce emissions at a lower cost in the future.
This paper investigates the effect of carbon or gasoline taxes on commuting-related CO2 emissions in an urban context. To assess the impact of public transport on the efficiency of the tax, the paper investigates two exogenous scenarios using a dynamic urban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area of Paris: (i) a scenario with the current dense public transport infrastructure, and (ii) a scenario without. It is shown that the price elasticity of CO2 emissions is twice as high in the short run if public transport options exist. Reducing commuting-related emissions thus requires lower (and more acceptable) tax levels in the presence of dense public transportation. If the goal of a carbon or gasoline tax is to change behaviors and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions (not to raise revenues), then there is an incentive to increase the price elasticity through complementary policies such as public transport development. The emission elasticity also depends on the baseline scenario and is larger when population growth and income growth are high. In the longer run, elasticities are higher and similar in the scenarios with and without public transport, because of larger urban reconfiguration in the latter scenario. These results are policy relevant, especially for fast-growing cities in developing countries. Even for cities where emission reductions are not a priority today, there is an option value attached to a dense public transport network, since it makes it possible to reduce emissions at a lower cost in the future.
Book
75 p.
  • Explanatory Notes 8 -Purpose and background 8 -How to use this document�8 -Coverage and methodology 8 -How this document was developed 10 1. Industry Summary and Background 13 -1.1 Exploration 14 -1.2 Well Development 14 -1.3 Petroleum Production 15 -1.4 Site Abandonment15 2. Process Description 16 -2.1 Petroleum Production from Oil Wells 16 -2.2 Stages of Petroleum Production 16 -2.3 Petroleum Production Chemicals�18 3. Overall Approach and General Facility Estimates 20 -3.1 Introduction to the General Facility Estimates 21 -3.2 Days of Operation (TIMEoperating_days and TIMEworking_days) 21 -3.3 Concentration of the Oil Well Chemical in Received Formulation (Fchem) 22 -3.4 Injection Concentration of Oil Well Chemicals (Fchem_used_oil and Fchem_used_water) -3.5 Daily Use Rate of Oil Well Chemical (Qchem_oil_site_day and Qchem_water_site_day) 24 -3.6 Number of Sites (Nsites)�28 -3.7 Number of Transport Containers Unloaded per Site (Ncontainer_unload_site_yr) 29 4. Environmental Release Assessments 31 -4.1 Control Technologies� 32 -4.2 Release to Water, Incineration, or Land from Container Residue (Release 1) 32 -4.3 Release to Water or Land from Equipment and Storage Tank Cleaning (Release 2)�34 -4.4 Release to Refinery (Incineration) from Separation Process (Release 3) 35 -4.5 Release to Water or Deep Well Injection from Separation Process (Release 4)�38 -4.6 Release to Land from Separation Process (Release 5)� 40 5. Occupational Exposure Assessments 40 -5.1 Personal Protective Equipment 41 -5.2 Number of Workers Exposed Per Site 41 -5.3 Exposure from Unloading Transport Containers into Mixing Vessel (Exposure A) 42 -5.4 Exposure from Transport Container Cleaning (Exposure B) 43 -5.5 Exposure from Equipment/Storage Tank Cleaning (Exposure C) 44 6 Sample Calculations 45 -6.1 General Facility Estimates�45 -6.2 Release Assessments 47 -6.3 Occupational Exposure Assessments 50 7. Data Gaps / Uncertainties and Future Work 52 References 54� Appendix A: Estimating Equation Summary and Default parameter Values Appendix B: Background Information and Equations/Defaults for the Standard CEB Environmental Release and Worker Exposure Models  
This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD) provides information on the sources, use patterns, and potential release pathways of chemicals used in petroleum production at oil wells. The document presents standard approaches for estimating the environmental releases of and occupational exposures to oil production chemicals.
  • Explanatory Notes 8 -Purpose and background 8 -How to use this document�8 -Coverage and methodology 8 -How this document was developed 10 1. Industry Summary and Background 13 -1.1 Exploration 14 -1.2 Well Development 14 -1.3 Petroleum Production 15 -1.4 Site Abandonment15 2. Process Description 16 -2.1 Petroleum Production from Oil Wells 16 -2.2 Stages of Petroleum Production 16 -2.3 Petroleum Production Chemicals�18 3. Overall Approach and General Facility Estimates 20 -3.1 Introduction to the General Facility Estimates 21 -3.2 Days of Operation (TIMEoperating_days and TIMEworking_days) 21 -3.3 Concentration of the Oil Well Chemical in Received Formulation (Fchem) 22 -3.4 Injection Concentration of Oil Well Chemicals (Fchem_used_oil and Fchem_used_water) -3.5 Daily Use Rate of Oil Well Chemical (Qchem_oil_site_day and Qchem_water_site_day) 24 -3.6 Number of Sites (Nsites)�28 -3.7 Number of Transport Containers Unloaded per Site (Ncontainer_unload_site_yr) 29 4. Environmental Release Assessments 31 -4.1 Control Technologies� 32 -4.2 Release to Water, Incineration, or Land from Container Residue (Release 1) 32 -4.3 Release to Water or Land from Equipment and Storage Tank Cleaning (Release 2)�34 -4.4 Release to Refinery (Incineration) from Separation Process (Release 3) 35 -4.5 Release to Water or Deep Well Injection from Separation Process (Release 4)�38 -4.6 Release to Land from Separation Process (Release 5)� 40 5. Occupational Exposure Assessments 40 -5.1 Personal Protective Equipment 41 -5.2 Number of Workers Exposed Per Site 41 -5.3 Exposure from Unloading Transport Containers into Mixing Vessel (Exposure A) 42 -5.4 Exposure from Transport Container Cleaning (Exposure B) 43 -5.5 Exposure from Equipment/Storage Tank Cleaning (Exposure C) 44 6 Sample Calculations 45 -6.1 General Facility Estimates�45 -6.2 Release Assessments 47 -6.3 Occupational Exposure Assessments 50 7. Data Gaps / Uncertainties and Future Work 52 References 54� Appendix A: Estimating Equation Summary and Default parameter Values Appendix B: Background Information and Equations/Defaults for the Standard CEB Environmental Release and Worker Exposure Models  
This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD) provides information on the sources, use patterns, and potential release pathways of chemicals used in petroleum production at oil wells. The document presents standard approaches for estimating the environmental releases of and occupational exposures to oil production chemicals.
Book
224 p.
  • Explanatory Notes 7 Executive Summary 8 Acknowledgements10 1. Introduction  18 -1.1 Purpose and scope19 -1.2 How to use this document 20 2. Industry Overview 22 -2.1 Specific regulatory background  22 -2.2 General information on the UK industry 27 -2.3 Scales of operation 27 -2.4 Industry associations 29 -2.5 End products 29 -2.6 Chemical categories in the electronics industry 30 -2.7 Electronic components 31 -2.8 Processes in the electronics industry 39 3. Industry Processes and Emissions Estimation 42 -3.1 Estimation overview 42 -3.2 Assembly of components 49 -3.3 Chemical vapour deposition (doping) 61 -3.4 Electroless plating 72 -3.5 Electroplating 84 -3.6 Etching 97 -3.7 High vacuum evaporation / sputtering 109 -3.8 Laminate production and processing 120 -3.9 Photolithography126 -3.10 Soldering  142 -3.11 Other industrial processes 155 -3.12 Service life  156 -3.13 Recovery from waste 157 -3.14 Waste 160 4. Examples  163 -4.1 Notes on risk assessment for electronics chemicals 163 -4.2 Worked example: Solvent used in spin coating  164 -4.3 Worked example: Inorganic salt used as an etchant 168 -4.4 Worked example: Diazo photoresist used in PCB manufacture 171 -4.5 Worked example: Electroplating chemical  177 ANNEXES 182 -Annex I: substances, preparations and components to be removed from separately collected WEEE 182 -Annex II: List of relevant industry associations 183 -Annex III: Substances relevant to the electronics industry 184 -Annex IV: Relevant A- and B-tables 204 -Notes on this Document: Data Gaps, Limitations and Improvements 207 -References 208 -Glossary 220
This report constitutes an emission scenario document (ESD) for chemicals used in the electronics industry. It provides information on the sources and release pathways of chemicals during various processing techniques relevant to this varied industry sector, to help estimate releases of chemicals into the environment. Therefore, it will assist in the development of exposure scenarios and risk characterisation and assessment, for example as required by the REACH regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of chemicals.
  • Explanatory Notes 7 Executive Summary 8 Acknowledgements10 1. Introduction  18 -1.1 Purpose and scope19 -1.2 How to use this document 20 2. Industry Overview 22 -2.1 Specific regulatory background  22 -2.2 General information on the UK industry 27 -2.3 Scales of operation 27 -2.4 Industry associations 29 -2.5 End products 29 -2.6 Chemical categories in the electronics industry 30 -2.7 Electronic components 31 -2.8 Processes in the electronics industry 39 3. Industry Processes and Emissions Estimation 42 -3.1 Estimation overview 42 -3.2 Assembly of components 49 -3.3 Chemical vapour deposition (doping) 61 -3.4 Electroless plating 72 -3.5 Electroplating 84 -3.6 Etching 97 -3.7 High vacuum evaporation / sputtering 109 -3.8 Laminate production and processing 120 -3.9 Photolithography126 -3.10 Soldering  142 -3.11 Other industrial processes 155 -3.12 Service life  156 -3.13 Recovery from waste 157 -3.14 Waste 160 4. Examples  163 -4.1 Notes on risk assessment for electronics chemicals 163 -4.2 Worked example: Solvent used in spin coating  164 -4.3 Worked example: Inorganic salt used as an etchant 168 -4.4 Worked example: Diazo photoresist used in PCB manufacture 171 -4.5 Worked example: Electroplating chemical  177 ANNEXES 182 -Annex I: substances, preparations and components to be removed from separately collected WEEE 182 -Annex II: List of relevant industry associations 183 -Annex III: Substances relevant to the electronics industry 184 -Annex IV: Relevant A- and B-tables 204 -Notes on this Document: Data Gaps, Limitations and Improvements 207 -References 208 -Glossary 220
This report constitutes an emission scenario document (ESD) for chemicals used in the electronics industry. It provides information on the sources and release pathways of chemicals during various processing techniques relevant to this varied industry sector, to help estimate releases of chemicals into the environment. Therefore, it will assist in the development of exposure scenarios and risk characterisation and assessment, for example as required by the REACH regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of chemicals.
Book
1 online resource (49 p.)
Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; the impact on the risk for non-poor individuals to fall into poverty; and the impact on the ability of poor people to escape poverty. The paper proposes four channels that determine household consumption and through which households may escape or fall into poverty (prices, assets, productivity, and opportunities). It then discusses whether and how these channels are affected by climate change and climate policies, focusing on the exposure, vulnerability, and ability to adapt of the poor (and those vulnerable to poverty). It reviews the existing literature and offers three major conclusions. First, climate change is likely to represent a major obstacle to a sustained eradication of poverty. Second, climate policies are compatible with poverty reduction provided that (i) poverty concerns are carefully taken into account in their design and (ii) they are accompanied by the appropriate set of social policies. Third, climate change does not modify how poverty policies should be designed, but it creates greater needs and more urgency. The scale issue is explained by the fact that climate will cause more frequent and more severe shocks; the urgency, by the need to exploit the window of opportunity given to us before climate impacts are likely to substantially increase.
Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; the impact on the risk for non-poor individuals to fall into poverty; and the impact on the ability of poor people to escape poverty. The paper proposes four channels that determine household consumption and through which households may escape or fall into poverty (prices, assets, productivity, and opportunities). It then discusses whether and how these channels are affected by climate change and climate policies, focusing on the exposure, vulnerability, and ability to adapt of the poor (and those vulnerable to poverty). It reviews the existing literature and offers three major conclusions. First, climate change is likely to represent a major obstacle to a sustained eradication of poverty. Second, climate policies are compatible with poverty reduction provided that (i) poverty concerns are carefully taken into account in their design and (ii) they are accompanied by the appropriate set of social policies. Third, climate change does not modify how poverty policies should be designed, but it creates greater needs and more urgency. The scale issue is explained by the fact that climate will cause more frequent and more severe shocks; the urgency, by the need to exploit the window of opportunity given to us before climate impacts are likely to substantially increase.
Book
1 online resource (18 p.)
This paper examines the possibility of environmental "development traps, " or "brown poverty traps, " caused by interactions between the impacts of climate change and increasing returns in the development of "clean-technology" sectors. A simple specification is used in which the economy can produce a single homogeneous consumption good with two different technologies. In the "old" sector, technology has global diminishing returns to scale and depends on the use of fossil energy that gives rise to long-lived, damaging climate change. In the "new" sector, the technology has convex-concave production and is not dependent on the polluting energy input. If the new sector does not grow fast enough to move through the phase of increasing returns, then the economy may linger at a low level of income indefinitely or it may achieve greater progress but then get driven back down to a lower level of income by environmental degradation. Stimulating growth in the new sector thus may be a key element for avoiding an environmental poverty trap and achieving higher, sustained income levels.
This paper examines the possibility of environmental "development traps, " or "brown poverty traps, " caused by interactions between the impacts of climate change and increasing returns in the development of "clean-technology" sectors. A simple specification is used in which the economy can produce a single homogeneous consumption good with two different technologies. In the "old" sector, technology has global diminishing returns to scale and depends on the use of fossil energy that gives rise to long-lived, damaging climate change. In the "new" sector, the technology has convex-concave production and is not dependent on the polluting energy input. If the new sector does not grow fast enough to move through the phase of increasing returns, then the economy may linger at a low level of income indefinitely or it may achieve greater progress but then get driven back down to a lower level of income by environmental degradation. Stimulating growth in the new sector thus may be a key element for avoiding an environmental poverty trap and achieving higher, sustained income levels.
Book
1 online resource (64 p.)
It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.
It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.
Book
201 p.
  • Explanatory Notes�7 PART I: GENERAL INFORMATION�17 1. Basics about Coatings 17 2. The European Coatings Industry 28 PART II: COATINGS MANUFACTURE�32 1. Content of Part II 32 2. Coatings Manufacture Processes and Emissions�32 3. Prevention and Abatement of Emissions� 50 4. Manufacture of Organic Solvent-Borne Coatings� 52 5. Manufacture of Water-Borne Coatings�68 6. Manufacture of Powder Coatings 87 7. Emission Estimates Assumptions 110 8. Data Gaps / Limitations / Improvements 114 PART III: APPLICATION AND DISPOSAL OF COATINGS�115 1. Presentation of Emissions Estimates 115 2. General Overview of Coatings Application� 117 3. Wooden Furniture Coatings 123 4. Decorative Paints 130 5. Automotive Coating and Refinishing�136 6. Metal Packaging Coatings 150 7. Coiil Coatings 158 8. Marine Coatings 164 9. Coatings in the Aerospace Industry 170 10. Rail Vehicle Coatings 175 11. Treatment of Coatings Wastes 181 12. Data Gaps / Limitations / Improvements 185 PART IV: GLOSSARY AND REFERENCES 186 1. Glossary 186 2. References 195  
This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD) is intended to provide information on the sources, use patterns and release pathways of chemicals used in the coatings industry (paints, lacquers and varnishes), to assist in the estimation of releases of chemicals into the environment.  
  • Explanatory Notes�7 PART I: GENERAL INFORMATION�17 1. Basics about Coatings 17 2. The European Coatings Industry 28 PART II: COATINGS MANUFACTURE�32 1. Content of Part II 32 2. Coatings Manufacture Processes and Emissions�32 3. Prevention and Abatement of Emissions� 50 4. Manufacture of Organic Solvent-Borne Coatings� 52 5. Manufacture of Water-Borne Coatings�68 6. Manufacture of Powder Coatings 87 7. Emission Estimates Assumptions 110 8. Data Gaps / Limitations / Improvements 114 PART III: APPLICATION AND DISPOSAL OF COATINGS�115 1. Presentation of Emissions Estimates 115 2. General Overview of Coatings Application� 117 3. Wooden Furniture Coatings 123 4. Decorative Paints 130 5. Automotive Coating and Refinishing�136 6. Metal Packaging Coatings 150 7. Coiil Coatings 158 8. Marine Coatings 164 9. Coatings in the Aerospace Industry 170 10. Rail Vehicle Coatings 175 11. Treatment of Coatings Wastes 181 12. Data Gaps / Limitations / Improvements 185 PART IV: GLOSSARY AND REFERENCES 186 1. Glossary 186 2. References 195  
This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD) is intended to provide information on the sources, use patterns and release pathways of chemicals used in the coatings industry (paints, lacquers and varnishes), to assist in the estimation of releases of chemicals into the environment.  
Book
1 online resource (87 p.)
Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target.
Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target.
Book
50 p. ; 21 x 29.7 cm.
This report focuses on the effects of climate change impacts on economic growth. Simulations with the OECD’s dynamic global general equilibrium model ENV-Linkages assess the consequences of a selected number of climate change impacts in the various world regions at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. This is complemented with an assessment of very long-run implications, using the AD-RICE model. The analysis finds that the effect of climate change impacts on annual global GDP is projected to increase over time, leading to a global GDP loss of 0.7% to 2.5% by 2060 for the most likely equilibrium climate sensitivity range. Underlying these annual global GDP losses are much larger sectoral and regional variations. Agricultural impacts dominate in most regions, while damages from sea level rise gradually become more important. Negative economic consequences are especially large in South and South-East Asia whereas other regions will be less affected and, in some cases, benefit thanks to adjustments from international trade. Emissions to 2060 will have important consequences in later decades and centuries. Simulations with the AD-RICE model suggest that if emissions continue to grow after 2060, annual damages of climate change could reach 1.5%-4.8% of GDP by the end of the century. Some impacts and risks from climate change have not been quantified in this study, including extreme weather events, water stress and large-scale disruptions. These will potentially have large economic consequences, and on balance the costs of inaction presented here likely underestimate the full costs of climate change impacts. More research is needed to assess them as well as the various uncertainties and risks involved. However, this should not delay policy action, but rather induce policy frameworks that are able to deal with new information and with the fact that by their nature some uncertainties and risks will never be resolved.
This report focuses on the effects of climate change impacts on economic growth. Simulations with the OECD’s dynamic global general equilibrium model ENV-Linkages assess the consequences of a selected number of climate change impacts in the various world regions at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. This is complemented with an assessment of very long-run implications, using the AD-RICE model. The analysis finds that the effect of climate change impacts on annual global GDP is projected to increase over time, leading to a global GDP loss of 0.7% to 2.5% by 2060 for the most likely equilibrium climate sensitivity range. Underlying these annual global GDP losses are much larger sectoral and regional variations. Agricultural impacts dominate in most regions, while damages from sea level rise gradually become more important. Negative economic consequences are especially large in South and South-East Asia whereas other regions will be less affected and, in some cases, benefit thanks to adjustments from international trade. Emissions to 2060 will have important consequences in later decades and centuries. Simulations with the AD-RICE model suggest that if emissions continue to grow after 2060, annual damages of climate change could reach 1.5%-4.8% of GDP by the end of the century. Some impacts and risks from climate change have not been quantified in this study, including extreme weather events, water stress and large-scale disruptions. These will potentially have large economic consequences, and on balance the costs of inaction presented here likely underestimate the full costs of climate change impacts. More research is needed to assess them as well as the various uncertainties and risks involved. However, this should not delay policy action, but rather induce policy frameworks that are able to deal with new information and with the fact that by their nature some uncertainties and risks will never be resolved.